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Comment Re:Winter (Score 1) 66

Real world testing gives a wide variety of range reduction in cold weather, depending on the make and model of EV. Some are really good at maintaining range, some are lousy at it.
In any case, preheating the cabin and battery cuts that substantially, and you generally don't need to keep warming the battery while driving as the regular discharge and charging from regenerative braking keeps the battery at operating temperature to limit range loss.
It's a contribution, but it isn't something like 30% is what he's getting at. More likely ~5%.

Comment Re:Makes sense (Score 1) 66

That doesn't change that if you're looking at comparative advantage - most CO2 saved for a given amount of battery, for example, delivery vans are an obvious pick before the EV freight trucks.
Though even with the freight trucks, one could concentrate on local delivery routes before longer haul ones to maximize savings.

Comment Re: hello from Europe (Score 1) 66

NYC: 8.5M
LA: 3.9M
Chicago: 2.7M
Total: 15.1M
Population USA: 342M
1 in 22.6 people live in those 3 cities.
On the other hand, if we include the "metro area" and not just city proper:

NYC Metro: 19.9M
LA Metro: 12.8M
Chicago Metro: 10.1M
Total: 42.8M, 1 in 8 people.

The math checks out if one uses metro instead of actual city. Basically, "metro" areas include the suburbs where many would commute into the city to work.

On the topic of electric vans, they would still totally work for deliveries through the metro area, not just the city core.

Comment Re:Self-accelerating decomposition (Score 1) 96

Making turbine blades, whether for plane engines or fixed power, is one of those fantastically expensive and complicated processes that we don't really build excess capability for it.
So any serious increase in demand first requires building more manufacturing capacity, whether that be in the USA, China, or elsewhere.
And the manufacturing equipment alone demands like a year's lead.

Comment Re:Jet engines (Score 1) 96

Combined cycle gas turbines can be 60-62% efficient. This is burning the gas in a turbine then scavenging the heat in a steam boiler.
Simple cycle turbines are 30-40%
Boilers are 33-42%, supercritical 45-47%
The biggest diesels in the world barely bust 50%.
Turbines, like with ICE engines, can be designed to produce more power for their size or be more efficient. Generally speaking, efficiency is emphasized for fixed installs. Bigger for a given power is more efficient.

Comment Jet engine efficiency (Score 1) 96

It depends on how it is set up. A combined cycle gas turbine system can hit 62% by burning the gas in a turbine then using the waste heat to run a boiler with its own turbine.
Around 30-40% just for the simple cycle, without heat scavenging.
Boiler systems are 33-42%, close enough that the exact install matters compared to a simple cycle turbine.
Get very fancy and very hot with the boiler and you might hit 47%.

Comment Re:My last corvette (Score 0) 218

I have a 2020 Toyota, it had the whole proprietary ecosystem. I tried it a bit, never got it to work even half-way decently, and they ended up shutting it down in 2024, to my understanding leaving a lot of people hanging with even newer vehicles than mine.
Integration was bad enough that just putting a cell phone holder to use google maps on it was better.
It was the last year before Toyota folded and put in android auto and apple carplay.
I would have never bought the car - but, well, a different family member got caught DUI, so I got the car.

Comment Re:Already has (Score 1) 106

I think we need to shoot more for "average". My mom regularly tosses her phone at me telling me to fix it.
I have to explain the remote regularly.
Sure, there are technies that actually built those boxes, but just as many people who just want to watch video.

Comment Re:These cars should have to pass drivers ed tests (Score 2) 45

People who have taken driver's ed still make damn foolish mistakes. As is Waymo currently has a lower accident rate per mile driven than humans do on average.

As such, I consider 'we were made aware of the problem and deployed a fix' to be an acceptable outcome. Much like a teenager who just upgraded from a learner's permit, they should keep improving.

As they keep identifying and fixing bugs, IE incorrect driving decisions, the rate should keep dropping until they're better than all but the best human drivers.

Comment Re:So what, all 12 people? (Score 1) 131

They have about the same population density, around the same amount of roads by population, etc...
We can care because they make for a good test case, especially for the northern USA.

It's like how polling around 1k people should give pretty good results for any question for the entire country, within 3%. Around 10k people for a 95% chance of being within 1% (where exact methodology to ensure a true random sample may be more important).

Now, we shouldn't assume any experience will be 100% the same, but on average we should see similar results.

Comment Re:numbers (Score 1) 131

So Norway has a car for every 1.9 people, and the USA for every 1.2 people.
While a significant difference, it isn't like it is an order of magnitude difference. I also remember seeing figures that places Norway at around the same population density as the USA, and about the same number of roads and distance driven per year.
I'd argue that Norway can and should be examined to inform on actions inside the USA, especially northern areas.

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