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Comment: Re:Must hackers be such dicks about this? (Score 1) 261

by TheCarp (#49498107) Attached to: FBI Accuses Researcher of Hacking Plane, Seizes Equipment

Assuming he can afford his own lawyer and is willing to fight it despite being offered a slap on the wrist, loss of property, and a leash on his freedoms or risk 10 years in prison.

If he insists on a trial he can expect a long and expensive road where they drains him until he pleads guilty no matter what

Comment: Re:Honestly ... (Score 1) 342

by TheCarp (#49473957) Attached to: Allegation: Lottery Official Hacked RNG To Score Winning Ticket

Common sense is just bullshit you invoke when you want to discount someone else's opinion, as a phrase it has no other purpose.

I mean your not wrong except in the assumption that "Crime" is a thing or "Conspirators" are. Neither are all created equal. This sort of pie in the sky analsys is fine for a hypothetical but in real situations there are always trade offs.

Quite simply there are many criminal enterprises that one cannot do alone or, the benefits of having help far outweigh the risks. This case here is a PRIME example. He could only pull it off alone if everything goes perfectly, which it clearly didn't if they even went to the level of investigation of getting the store video (unless that is SOP? I don't know, my wife's family had a store with lotto but apparently nobody hit that big so she doesn't know)

Any individual crime just has too many factors to make such blanket statements about, especially when there are different kinds of crime that different people have different attitudes towards to begin with. Its just not that cut and dry.

Yes conspirators roll all the time, and people confess often without meaning to as well. However that just isn't the whole story. One man can't line dance so it doesn't really matter whether he wants to have partners or not.

All that said.... again not all situations are equal. I don't think its SOP to get the store video footage which means they already suspected tampering. If they already suspected tampering, they likely already suspected him of being the tamperer. Most criminals are not operating under a microscope so much as above the telescopes.....its an entirely different game at that point, and a game with a serious disadvantage, especially when your microscopist has hundreds of millions of reasons to wait for you to show up.

Comment: Re:Honestly ... (Score 1) 342

by TheCarp (#49473459) Attached to: Allegation: Lottery Official Hacked RNG To Score Winning Ticket

> Your odds of being caught for the commission of a crime are significantly higher than your odds of ending up in a
> plane crash. I'm not certain why you're trying to equate them or argue this point with me.

I never claimed otherwise. However they are the same in one detail.... the remorse of those after the fact has no bearing whatsoever on the odds of it happening. I am the one perplexed at why you brought it up.

> The words "trusted" and "co-conspirator" are mutually exclusive.

I see why you think that, and I understand why you would come to that conclusion. I don't agree that others would or do necessarily come to the same conclusion.

Comment: Re:Honestly ... (Score 1) 342

by TheCarp (#49473321) Attached to: Allegation: Lottery Official Hacked RNG To Score Winning Ticket

Glad I looked this one up, for some reason I really feel like this quote should be Kay.

"Yes there was a mundane detail"
"It's not a mundane detail, Michael!"
"Don't talk to me about my business Kay!"

Office space works even better for this one though....given the competency of the criminal minds involved.

Comment: Re:Honestly ... (Score 1) 342

by TheCarp (#49472973) Attached to: Allegation: Lottery Official Hacked RNG To Score Winning Ticket

Non-zero yes but, there are many many more investigations than arrests. Just because a crime is suspected doesn't mean that the investigation will catch anyone. Even in this case, they clearly had suspicion when they went and sought out the video of who bought the ticket.... but if it wasn't him and the ticket was presented for redemption by the person who bought the ticket who had no easy connection to him (this would be very tricky.... need to find someone without a cell phone probably....homeless?)

Thats the thing, it seems to me that the video is the real cincher. Once you see him on the video, its done, its obvious, that is the string which ties everything into a nice package. Without that, you have more suspects and less answers.

Generally, yes, once you are caught and being questioned, you are usually pretty boned....hell even innocent people sometimes do better with a guilty plea than taking a chance in court. However, if you can avoid them being so sure who did it, that is a whole different story.

Comment: Re:Honestly ... (Score 1) 342

by TheCarp (#49472897) Attached to: Allegation: Lottery Official Hacked RNG To Score Winning Ticket

> Needless to say, of course, this is all highly illegal, and would constitute criminal conspiracy in addition to
> whatever other laws are broken, so I'm not suggesting anyone do this - merely red teaming the scenario.

Sure but so is defrauding the lotto anyway so, once you decided to go down that path, you may as well go for the gold, nobody is going to give you credit for half measures, you are either going to prison or getting away, there is no in between on a case like this.

Its an odd calculous, to consider the risk vs protection factors of having accomplices, honestly, im not too sure how to it really works out in the end but, its pretty obvious to me that this was a situation that called for one.

Comment: Re:Honestly ... (Score 1) 342

by TheCarp (#49472791) Attached to: Allegation: Lottery Official Hacked RNG To Score Winning Ticket

I am familiar with prisoner's dilemma but not this rather radical and non-sensical interpretation of it which seems to hardly be a prediction worth reporting when its so clear that criminal conspiracies are able to align the interests of their members. While its true they may do so with varrying degrees of effectiveness and sometimes it doesn't work indefinitely but, any notion that they can't be aligned is tantamount to claiming you just proved gravity doesn't work, you can claim it all you want but I expect to remain firmly on the ground anyway.

Comment: Re:Honestly ... (Score 4, Informative) 342

by TheCarp (#49472059) Attached to: Allegation: Lottery Official Hacked RNG To Score Winning Ticket

Not entirely, if you can trust that his interests and yours are aligned then you can generally trust him. Actually, I was reading some interesting articles on Rockefellar and the railroads recently, where they came up with an ingenious price fixing scheme where Rockefellar was a colluding customer whose interests were aligned with the conspirators.

Basically price fixing often has a loophole.....rebates. Colluding companies can still compete by offering secret rebates to customers, thus reducing the effective rate while appearing to honor the collusion agreement.

Enter the colluding customer. Rockefellar was in a uinique position as he owned several companies and nobody really knew what all companies he owned and didn't. He was given what were called "Drawbacks", that is rebates for every barrel of oil which shipped, whether he was the customer or not! This allowed him to ship under any name and still get his rebate without admitting which companies were his.

In this way, colluding entities were prevented from defecting by aligning incentives to create a kind of trust.

Comment: Re:Tradeoffs (Score 3, Interesting) 186

by TheCarp (#49471623) Attached to: Acetaminophen Reduces Both Pain and Pleasure, Study Finds

Funny, as a pot smoker myself, who would love to see the terrible jobs program known as our drug war ended, I actually think its MORE important to legalize the harder drugs, even though they have a lot less users.

Fact is, drug laws have not been found even marginally effective at their intended purpose. Addiction rates do NOT go down as a result of them. In fact, about the only things drug laws have accomplished are filling prisons and creating law enforcement jobs. They also did a pretty good job making sure any violent street gangs that formed had easy access to lots of money, making them more lucrative and more able to expand and war with eachother.

There is ample evidence that drug addiction is not the cause of criminality either. However, criminality is the entirely predictable result of raising the price of people's addictions beyond their ability to pay and causing them to make irrational decisions like choosing between drugs and food or criminal acts and starvation.

Do you blame the drug addict who knows a little chemistry and knows he can feed his own addiction and maybe make some money cooking meth? Or do you blame the policy makers who created the black market for meth in the first place? No (or exceedingly few, there is always one of anything) homes burned before drug laws came to town. Now? Now half the people in burn units are there as a result of meth cooking..... and.,... the laws haven't even reduced drug use!

Whats worst, if you go back, its pretty clear all this hubub started as a jobs program after alcohol prohibition. It was the very people like Harry Anslinger who were facing possible loss of funding and their jobs with it, if new drug laws were not created..... they lied to congress like it was their job. Seriously, google good old Harry, you will see.

On the other hand, we have the swiss heroin study that looked at EXACTLY these issues. What did they do? Very simply....they provided heroin to junkies at what they believed would be an open market rate without prohibition and a safe place to use their drug. The result? well, they continued to use heroin, but there was a reported 90% drop in all other forms of criminality.

Drugs are not the problem, idiots who think they can solve all problems by just making laws against anything they dislike who are the problem.

Comment: Re:Honestly ... (Score 3, Insightful) 342

by TheCarp (#49470185) Attached to: Allegation: Lottery Official Hacked RNG To Score Winning Ticket

Maybe more people who do it are at least somewhat smart about how they employ their tools? It sounds like this guy did a lot of upfront planning, but then failed at some of the most basic precautions. Why would he be caught dead anywhere near a lotto point of sale during such a caper? Surely that many millions justifies an accomplice to do the actual ticket purchasing and crying in front of the media, and the promising to help grandma and the community.

Note the implication in the article talking about rootkits....they clearly didn't find the actual software. If he hadn't been caught on video buying the ticket they would have little to go on.

Comment: Re:How would you promote job growth (Score 1) 238

> "their fair share" is nebulous on purpose, because if they actually specified, then it could be argued against. By
> keeping it undefined, there is no argument that can be made. The people making that argument win by default,
> because you can't argue against it.

Its worst than that, you can't argue against it because it is absolutely correct in its nebulosity.

By saying their "Fair Share" they can invoke not just anything but...whatever YOU think. If you think $1 is fair, then that is what they just said isn't it? If you think $1million is, they said that too.... they just didn't explicitly say either because they let you fill in the blank!

How can anyone be againt one paying their "fair share"? Clearly if its fair, and its their share, they should pay it by definition right?

Its kind of like "tax reform". You can't be against "reform" without being regressive right? So once something has been called reform, anyone againt it is stuck with more complicated arguments trying to explain why it isn't actually reform, and usually has to use the word reform in its name, this implicitly contradicting himself via raw terminology.

A "Fair share" that isn't fair is a contradiction in terms, so it puts anyone who disagrees with it on automatic uphill footing.

Comment: One option; git-annex + gpg (Score 1) 443

So you setup gpg, setup a key as normal.

Setup git-annex. It supports several backends, including rsync which works with rsync.net and an amazon options, and a few others. I only use ssh backends myself.

Anyway, you can setup some backends as encrypted backends and anything that goes there gets encrypted. It can only be read by someone with a clone of the original git repo and the gpg key to decrypt it. So you keep an encrypted copy of that seperately. Its much smaller, so you can keep many copies of it, its just index information.

Then after a disaster, you get a copy of the index/key, decrypt it, and have full access to your offsite cloud storage. You can even have multiple types of backend at different services. Hell if you have a friend who runs linux and doesn't mind you using some of his disk, you can use it as a remote.

Oh, and carry an encrypted clone of the index repo with you on a usb stick.

If the password/phrase is good you shouldn't need to worry too much. Learning to come up with decent enough passwords is pretty easy too. Everybody has their favorite methods, I like things with mnemonics, they work shockingly well, I could tell you with decent accuracy some root passwords we used for all of a few months at a job I left 10 years ago.

Comment: Re:DIfferent thinking to gravity (Score 1) 199

by TheCarp (#49456967) Attached to: Supernovae May Not Be Standard Candles; Is Dark Energy All Wrong?

I would think this case would be easy to distinguish from others. Basically if matter itself were expanding the way we often talk about space as, yes I could see this constant expansion pressure looking a lot like gravity but, anything on the surface that was expanding would also be moving further away from anything next to it, so if you built a structure, the walls of the structure would suffer increasing internal stress from the expansion AND its corners would be pulled away from eachother by the ground expansion.

Civilization, as we know it, will end sometime this evening. See SYSNOTE tomorrow for more information.

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