I predict that 2012 we will still have available IPv4 addresses.
This will happen because some IPv4 addresses will be reallocated as client-side doesn't need IPv4 addresses in IPv6 to access IPv4 resources. So IPv6 adaptation it self will slow the need to migrate to IPv6 as singular Internet Protocol.
I think the easiest way to make friction is, if just-works thinks aren't working:
- printer: because cups on NSLU2 died
- web-sites open slowly: because browser tries to use IPv6
- a-must-have browser plugin is not working: because it's not IE or Firefox was just updated
- TV doesn't work: because the Dreambox is a testbed for new OSD pet-project
- laptop doesn't have internet: routers NAT is dying under the P2P connections or you liked to isolate wlan to different vlan and the routing did come up in last reboot.
Many times it is hard to see why we need development, when we already have invented all the things in the world.
Luckily IPv4 address space has been allocated unfairly for Asia and Africa so they will have the first IPv6 users and most of the IPv6 experts. I believe that IPv6 makes Internet somewhat born again. Because it brings back some of the we all peers way of networking that was the main drive for internet development in the early 90's.