No, it's better than a guess. It's called fuzzy logic and it serves me well. It allows me to make educated guesses without having to massage a lot of data.
The main-stream media and the campaigns wanted to talk about how close the race was so that people would watch the news, click on the stories and get out and vote. If you publicize, like Nate did, that Candidate B is definitely going to win, Candidate B's supporters may skip voting and Candidate A's may make a big push to vote, reversing the prediction of the polls.