Otter's Journal: Venezuela, Turkey, Israel, India, North Korea, ...

Well, the world looks pretty grim all over today.

Instapundit linked this Venezuelan weblog. My favorite part is the pictures of demonstrators. I feel bad for these people, who are in a really bad situation. Still, while when I look at pictures of Iranian student protesters I'm astounded by their courage, here I can't help but notice the pretty women, warm weather (I'm freezing my ass off here...) and the overall cheerfulness. Compared to the rage and fury you see on the faces of the professional protesters in the US, their smiles and warmth are striking.

Also funny is the page where pictures of anti-Chavez crowds are printed in the Cuban news as pro-Chavez marches.

Also interesting, this article on the new closeness between Turkey, Israel and India. Meanwhile, I haven't this noted elsewhere but the first members of the American team to coordinate with the Israeli military in case of an Iraq war have arrived in Tel Aviv. That's probably significant.

On North Korea, liberals are still blaming Bush and conservatives are still blaming Clinton (and Carter). I don't know what to make of it, and didn't see anything really worth linking. They're apparently genuinely upset about this James Bond thing, though. Kim Jong-Il is apparently a huge Bond fan, and maybe that's really what set him off. It's kind of like one of those alien races on Star Trek where they're so removed from the way the rest of the planet functions that it's hard to guess what they really think, want or are trying to do.

Kim Jong-Il

[BWJones]

They're apparently genuinely upset about this James Bond thing, though. Kim Jong-Il is apparently a huge Bond fan, and maybe that's really what set him off. It's kind of like one of those alien races on Star Trek where they're so removed from the way the rest of the planet functions that it's hard to guess what they really think, want or are trying to do.

Exactly. Kim Jong-Il is a true whacko who drinks $633/bottle brandy while potentially 2 million people are going to starve in Korea this winter. He and many of the Korean government are so isolated that they are far removed from the reality that the rest of the world lives in.

The problem in dealing with this guy is that you don't want to attack for fear of engaging China in a shooting war over Taiwan and Japan certainly does not want war in Korea being so close to things. That approach could destabilize the whole region. Caving in to Kim Jong-Il's international blackmail is another problem. Korea already receives massive food aid from all over the world, but it all goes to the military. In fact, north Korea is absolutely the worlds most militaristic state with 25% of the GDP going to the military. Do we give them more food? More fuel oil? More nuclear reactors?

The best solution is probably to attempt to get more international pressure on north Korea including China, but Bush's outright statement of the axis of evil certainly did not help things.

Re:Kim Jong-Il

[rnd()]

What do you feel were the actual repurcussions of Bush's "axis of evil" statements? Are you saying that N. Korea has nothing to lose? Or that it is distinctly aware that everyone else in the region has more to lose?

Re:Kim Jong-Il

[BWJones]

Are you saying that N. Korea has nothing to lose? Or that it is distinctly aware that everyone else in the region has more to lose?

North Korea has absolutely nothing to lose. They are bankrupt in just about any way you can put it. In fact, I was looking at some remote sensing data the other day and you can see from night time satellite photos that north Korea is literally dark. South Korea is outlined and filled in by lights and there is a sharp line at the DMZ and darkness from there north. My comment about Bush's description of the axis of evil was that the timing was bad. He was getting ready to sabre rattle in the middle east while north Korea is getting more despirate. True, we are supposed to be able to fight in two theatres at once, but that is obviously not the best idea. Thus the diplomatic approach with North Korea.

Re:Kim Jong-Il

[Otter]

Well, that's the question. Do they really think Bush is coming after them after Iraq? Has their economy crashed even worse and now they're trying to scare up some more aid? It's impossible to know with a society that exists in another dimension, especially since they're not unaware that being regarded as psychos is the strongest card they have.

Take, for example, their letting the kidnapped Japanese go home for a visit while holding their families hostage. My guess is that they genuinely meant that as a friendly gesture and can't imagine why the Japanese were so appalled by it.

Re:Kim Jong-Il

[neocon]

I don't think it's at all clear that naming N. Korea what it is was part of the problem -- if anything it's a necessary first part of the solution.

For the last decade, US policy on North Korea focused on pretending that Kim Jong Il was a sane and rational (and honest) negotiating partner and not calling him on it when he did wrong.

We can all see where this got us -- North Korea was working on nukes all along, from the time of Clinton and Carter's agreement on through. It didn't start doing so at the time of the last State of the Union address.

Bush's approach, of not going back to Business as Usual, or pretending that North Korea is in compliance means that we can have a real effect, instead of postponing the problem.

Information wants to be cyclical

[neocon]

So Instapundit [instapundit.com] today links to a Venezualan blog on Salon [salon.com], which links to this JE.

This comment references those, and around we go. :-)