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Comment: Who are the Super Forecasters? (Score 0) 136

by LF11 (#46732703) Attached to: Crowd Wisdom Better At Predictions Than Top CIA Analysts
I am really curious as to who makes up the "super forecasters" of these geopolitical problems. I suspect that they are merely the Libertarian contingent. 30 people out of 3000? Sounds about right.

Or, alternatively, are they spiritual people? People who partaken in psychedelic experiences? What defines this group?

Comment: No reality check needed (Score 4, Insightful) 161

by LF11 (#46645661) Attached to: App Developers, It's Time For a Reality Check
Programming is one of the few industries with a reasonable unemployment rate composed largely of people who are voluntarily between jobs. In my opinion (having gone into a programming career straight out of high school, then going to college at 26) skipping the fucking bullshit in higher ed and going straight for programming is a perfectly valid and appropriate course of action.

Skip the debt. Skip the "social justice" BS while money slips away from you like diarrhea. Skip the booze and marijuana and dead-end "self-discovery." Go straight to where it counts, and build a life in a field where lives and careers are still being built.

My company just upgraded their dev position hiring rec to always-on. We now are hiring (competent) devs any time we find them, regardless of whether we have a place for them at that moment.

Comment: Re:..and we need this technology why exactly? (Score 1) 176

by LF11 (#46634703) Attached to: The Connected Home's Battle of the Bulbs
Frankly, I want a pretty decent collection of these bulbs for security purposes. I want the lighting in the house to show evidence of activity regardless of whether people are present. The current solution -- using cheap wall timers -- is fraught with mechanical problems, clock synchronization issues, and general dysfunction. Centralized digital control may be more expensive but will be a lot more reliable.

Comment: Re:They're getting into Bitcoin NOW?!? (Score 1) 94

by LF11 (#46628987) Attached to: Square Market Now Accepts Bitcoin
No reporting is necessary for personal purchases (i.e. groceries). There's a lot of hysteria about the IRS regulations but it doesn't really affect anyone except traders and people moving large amounts. I've written a few bots, and have meticulous records for every trade (have to, to make sure the bot isn't losing money).

You are surprisingly judgmental for someone on a "news for nerds" website. I guess it's true that people become bitter as they age. Or maybe you're just jealous. Imagine how jealous you'll be when the next bubble blows through $2k and you could have quadrupled your $450 purchase. But no, you're just trolling instead of learning. Ouch. Who cares about capital gains when you put an additional zero on your account every year? Besides, the smart people are selling some bitcoin at a loss right now to swallow up capital gains.

Bitcoin is already up 10 percent from my purchase yesterday. I routinely save 10-15 percent (after exchange fees!) on my grocery shopping, even in a down market. I buy bitcoin when it dips, then buy groceries in between dips. Oh, I almost forgot about the 3% Gyft cashback for bitcoin purchases, better add that on there, too.

Comment: Re:Buy Now (Score 1) 94

by LF11 (#46627461) Attached to: Square Market Now Accepts Bitcoin
For you in your nice cushy Western economy with clean, smiling bank tellers and an account for every stage of your life, there isn't much point to bitcoin. You'll be the last of us to figure it out.

For the rest of world, it's a different story. Bitcoin's volatility is already less than that of a few "real" currencies.

Comment: Re:They're getting into Bitcoin NOW?!? (Score 0) 94

by LF11 (#46627447) Attached to: Square Market Now Accepts Bitcoin
I use bitcoins regularly for daily purchases such as groceries. The transaction fees are noxious, but the volatility makes up for it and then some.

As for hoarding, this is a basic restatement of the Paradox of Thrift. The economic models that use this are not sufficient to describe bitcoin. There are other models which DO suffice, of which you seem to be oddly ignorant.

Comment: Re:They're getting into Bitcoin NOW?!? (Score 1) 94

by LF11 (#46627417) Attached to: Square Market Now Accepts Bitcoin
You're funny. Now is the time to be getting into bitcoin. Nothing is broken except sentiment, and there is massive new infrastructure for actually paying for real things with bitcoin.

The MtGox scandal is a good thing. MtGox is the single worst source of bad bitcoin drama and it is good for them to collapse before bitcoin actually becomes a really big thing. The bans in Russia and China are setbacks, but nothing particularly unexpected. After all, bitcoin is antithetical to centralized currencies. As for the IRS regulations, how can you even think this is a bad thing? This is legitimate recognition, and is a necessary step for full corporate and Wall Street adoption. Now the bean counters know how to treat bitcoin.

Mathematicians stand on each other's shoulders. -- Gauss