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Comment Re: fears that it will replace the work of humans (Score 1) 46

Sure, we can ask questions. But that's not the same as claiming that AI is about to end civilization as we know it.

You said it was a "logical fallacy" to even ask the question.

And your authority for making that pronouncement is? Many things that have never previously happened in human history have happened.

My authority is history. While AI has never happened before,

Bingo.
AI, if it advances along the lines that have been laid out for it, could very reasonably reach the point where it can replace humans in most jobs.

Maybe some hitherto-unsuspected new type of jobs will pop up that AI can't do. But we don't know that.

Even if AI and robotics can't do all jobs, if it replaces a high fraction of work without replacing that with other work that people will pay for, our current economic paradigm (as the grandparent post phrases it: "if you don't work, you don't eat") fail if there is no work available.

Comment Re: fears that it will replace the work of humans (Score 1) 46

once AI becomes good enough that it can do every job cheaper than a human

This is a dystopian sci-fi fantasy that will never come to pass. There will always be jobs for humans.

And your authority for making that pronouncement is?
Many things that have never previously happened in human history have happened.

if, as you say, the truth is "if you don't work, you don't eat", what happens when there is no work to be had?

This is a logical fallacy. It's like asking, "What if we were to build an immovable object that could stand up to an irresistible force?" It's a contradiction.

You apparently don't know what a logical fallacy is. "In my opinion this won't happen" is not the definition of a logical fallacy.

You go on to say "don't even think about it even as a thought exercise."

There will *always* be work that machines can't do more cheaply than humans. All automation ever invented, has limits.

Man will never fly. It is a logical contradiction. This atomic bomb will never go off, and I speak as an expert on explosives. Everything that can be invented has already been invented. Humans will never fly to the moon; it is impossible. There is a world market for maybe computers.

It is able to cost-effectively replace only the most basic drudge-work.

And what we have now is the end of development; there will never be anything better.

Right now AI *feels* (potentially) omnipotent. This is just succumbing to the hypester's vaporous promises.

And therefore we can't even ask the question.

Comment Re: fears that it will replace the work of humans (Score 3, Insightful) 46

There is only one remedy for this problem which doesn't lead to wave after wave of this, and it is to separate the basic needs of the living from employment

In other words, there is no remedy for this "problem." Perhaps the "problem" isn't a bug, but a feature. Nobody is as interested in my personal lifestyle and comforts, than me. If a basic living isn't motivation enough for me to do whatever is necessary to obtain that basic living standard, why should someone else work harder so that I don't have to?

You are totally misunderstanding the problem.

Your implicit assumption here that it is possible for a person "to do whatever is necessary to obtain that basic living standard." But the question is: once AI becomes good enough that it can do every job cheaper than a human, how do humans survive?

You say "why should someone else work harder so that I don't have to?"-- but it's not another human that is working harder. It is a mechanism. And that mechanism is cheaper than you are.

And it's not that you don't "have" to. It's that work no longer exists for you to work at.

...
But these have not removed the basic foundation of truth that, if you don't work, you don't eat.

if, as you say, the truth is "if you don't work, you don't eat", what happens when there is no work to be had?

Comment Re:Liquid hydrogen [Re:A sad day] (Score 1) 175

Nevertheless, hydrogen fuel is routine in spaceflight.

Propellant leaks are a problem to be dealt with in all fuel types; not just hydrogen.
Liquid oxygen: https://spacenews.com/propella...
Kerosene: https://spaceflightnow.com/202...
Methane: https://spaceflightnow.com/202...
Hydrazine: https://www.teslarati.com/spac...

Comment Inefficient [Re:A different kind of "hydrogen...] (Score 1) 175

Then don't use hydrogen produced by electricity. Or at least not produced by electricity alone. There's more efficient ways to produce hydrogen than with electricity.

Yeah? Name one.

There's perhaps a half dozen promising technologies that use heat alone

At extremely low efficiency.

or heat with some electricity as the energy source

Back to electrolysis.

Comment Liquid hydrogen [Re:A sad day] (Score 1) 175

I've said similar things about NASA's Artemis mission for the same reason. Doesn't everybody want to use a fuel that is almost impossible to keep from leaking, and then spend the better part of a year with the rocket stuck on the pad trying to fix the leaks so they can launch it? :-D

Not sure what your thinking is here. Hydrogen stages for rockets have been in routine use for well over sixty years. By now it's a well-developed technology.

But orbital boosters can afford liquid storage at -253C; they only need to store the liquid hydrogen for a few hours, and the cube-square law means that the 150 tons of hydrogen needed for a rocket takes a lot longer to boil off than a hundred kilograms in a car. Liquid hydrogen would be an absurd choice for a car.

Comment Promising? [Re:A sad day] (Score 2) 175

Promising? How?

The killer problem with hydrogen is that it is so hard to store. The density is low, so although it has high energy per unit mass, it has terrible energy per unit volume. High pressure tanks, low temperature tanks, storage as liquid, storage as adsorbed hydrogen on metal (typically platinum or palladium)-- all of these are unsatisfactory in one way or another for vehicles.

May be good for stationary applications, where you can afford huge tanks, but it's simply not a good choice for vehicles.

It's a concept that's only been kept limping along by the fossil fuel industry

I think this point needs to be emphasized more. The fossil fuel (read: oil) industry really doesn't want a replacement for petroleum-powered cars; they make trillions of dollars selling oil. They want to push hydrogen vehicle research as a replacement for petroleum not because it's going to work, but because it's not going to work, and they don't want a solution that works.

Comment Re:A sad day (Score 1) 175

Well I've got some bad news for you - it was either Hydrogen, something similar, or we'll be sticking with fossil fuels. Most people will not adopt electric, no matter how much pent-up anger you exert to will it so.

I'm not sure why you say most people won't adopt electric. Batteries are well down the learning curve, and the electricity distribution system is well developed and even more widespread than the gasoline distribution system. We power all sorts of things with electricity; cars are just one more.

Comment minutes per minute [Re:history] (Score 1) 53

A nautical mile is one minute of latitude, which at the equator is also one minute of longitude and corresponds to the distance the Earth rotates in one minute.

Am I missing something here? The earth rotates fifteen degrees per hour, which is a quarter of a degree per minute (of time). That comes to fifteen (angular) minutes in one time minute, or one nautical mile every 4 seconds.

Comment Re:No it's not (Score 1) 59

They replace about a third of the cement with fly ash. So, yes, that reduces carbon since it uses less cement. The fly ash comes from burning pulverized coal, so this technique won't work after coal is phased out.

Pretty much all concrete uses aggregate. Fly ash is just one specific form of aggregate.

Using fly ash in concrete is not new, though. https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/pavem...

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