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Comment: Re: Different colors (Score 1) 267

by FriendlyStatistician (#47638387) Attached to: My degree of colorblindness:

The effect the OP describes, where after lying on your side for a while the eye which is lower down sees things as slightly warmer (more red) than the eye that is higher up, is completely normal AFAIK. I notice it at least once a week or so. All my family members have confirmed that they experience the same thing--we actually discussed this in our family facebook group a few months back.

Since it seems unlikely that we all have tumors pinching our optical nerves, I'm guessing it's something that happens to everyone and you just haven't noticed it yourself.

Comment: Re:n/t (Score 1) 278

by FriendlyStatistician (#47487711) Attached to: The debate over climate change is..

Hi, statistician here.

For a single model to predict temperatures higher than what actually happens and for the result to be within the error bars is unremarkable. When all 73 models predict results higher than what happens that indicates some serious systematic bias in the modelling (assuming there wasn't selection bias on the other side, of course--if the heartland folk intentionally ignored models that predicted less warming than actually happened then that's a huge problem). If the models are unbiased ("right on average") I would probably expect about half of them to predict above and half of them to predict below the actual results. (It wouldn't necessarily be exactly half and half, because the error distribution is not necessarily symmetric, but it should probably be somewhere around there.)

I believe that climate change is happening, but I think we're probably generally overestimating both the size of it and our precision.. There are well-recognized biases in various steps of the academic/scientific system--obtaining funding, getting published, making a name for yourself--that encourage this kind of exaggeration of results, in terms of both size and precision.

This is my judgement as a statistician--a kind of meta-scientist, if you will. I have no expertise in climate so I can't speak to the soundness of the mdoels being used, but the statistical behavior of them does raise some flags.

Comment: Re:Repatriation, yeah right. (Score 2) 389

I'd bet it's Leavenworth, assuming they let him live. The guy is now claiming "He was a spy" which means he is admitting to espionage. To me, that makes him no-longer a whistle-blower, but something quite different. He's admitting to being a traitor, which entitles him to a trial on charges that can carry some serious penalties, including death. I'd be surprised if they went for death, given he's still alive.

He is claiming that he was trained and worked as a spy for the US government, not (as you seem to think) that he spied on the US government for a foreign power.

Comment: Re:Not for Nerds (Score 3, Insightful) 253

Perhaps introspection is lacking in that particular decision making process and how playing with statistics and probabilities can lead to wrong decision making especially in modern human society allows interactions between controlled social environments and uncontrolled social environments, in terms of medical controls, specifically access to vaccines and high risk population bases.

Whoa man, whoa. Sentences are your friends, don't abuse them like that.

Nobody said computers were going to be polite.

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