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Comment: Re:Great. Let's sit here and wait for the next wav (Score 1) 422

by Demonoid-Penguin (#49672347) Attached to: Ice Loss In West Antarctica Is Speeding Up

I'm saying that you have no guarantee ahead of time that your model won't turn out to be useless and harmful.

There are no guarantees. It's about risk assessment. Waiting for better models may be more harmful than using whatever we have now. Besides, fossil fuels are going to run out anyway, and we'll have to deal with the harmful consequences of finding replacements anyway. All we need to do is start a bit earlier.

What? But didn't Oliphant say "the greatest human failing is ability to extrapolate"? (sarcasm off)

A core principle of good risk assessment is "how much will it hurt if the worst happens" - "deniers" seem to believe that if the worst happens (they're wrong and should have stopped fiddling, washed their hands and rung the fire brigade) - they all die - in which (unlikely case) they can invent a time machine, go back, and fix things (coz there's an industrial solution - right?).

Comment: Re:Great. Let's sit here and wait for the next wav (Score 1) 422

by Demonoid-Penguin (#49672303) Attached to: Ice Loss In West Antarctica Is Speeding Up

(2) there is a United Nations drive to create a grass roots political counter culture which will operate via NGOs as an alternative to national governments,...

There's a term for the form of sophism that tacks a bundle of bullshit onto something that appears honest. I can't think of it at the moment - but I'm certain whatever it is will be available at all good chemists.

Apropos of nothing - if I see smoke I suspect fire and evacuate and test with my eyes and nose rather than with my flesh. To each their own.

Watch out for those Black helicopters - those shape-shifting lizard things are what makes all the C02.

Comment: Re: Great. Let's sit here and wait for the next wa (Score 1) 422

by Demonoid-Penguin (#49672261) Attached to: Ice Loss In West Antarctica Is Speeding Up

Denier: "I don't believe anything and will do nothing about it." True Believer: "You're all going to hell but I will also do nothing but insist that you're going to hell!"

Moron: "paints with a bloody big brush, and only in monochromatic colours" (that'd be you)

A "denier" doesn't necessary deny everything any more than a "believer" doesn't necessarily do the shit you claim. The chance of you correctly describing any given "denier" or "believer" are about the same as you shitting in a bucket if it was nailed to your bum - very unlikely given your propensity for getting things wrong.

Don't take that the wrong way - I value your enlightened insights.

Comment: Re:Great. Let's sit here and wait for the next wav (Score 1) 422

by Demonoid-Penguin (#49672191) Attached to: Ice Loss In West Antarctica Is Speeding Up

Personally though, I hate both your attitudes because your emotions and politics get in the way of rational, logical evolution of the science behind the issue.

Is that what you call "catchups" and "after-the-facts"? (sigh, flicks another ash in the fish tank, and mutters I'll clean it next week the fish are fine.

Comment: Re:Great. Let's sit here and wait for the next wav (Score 1) 422

by Demonoid-Penguin (#49672181) Attached to: Ice Loss In West Antarctica Is Speeding Up

of climate change deniers.

Of course, we're not going to do anything about the problem. Of course not.

You probably have a really small car.

Climate change is normal - it's happened throughout history.

Warm weather will be nice - I'll save money on heating. Are you a shill for power companies?

The "ice" has melted before - it was good (comeonin). Dinosaurs aren't going to come back... and there won't be any volcanoes where I live.

I've got a multi-billion dollar plan to stop global warming if it really bothers you - it does require a hell of a lot of energy and toxic by-products (but we've proved overheating the kitchen doesn't warm the house or it's surrounds - so don't worry your little head about that. Oooh look - Snoop Dogge studies history, and, um, shiny things.)

Comment: Re:Uber isn't collecting GST? (Score 1) 125

Not sure how things work in Australia, but in Canada, you don't have to charge GST (same name, who would have guessed) if you make less than $30,000 in revenue. It's possible they could get around it by making the drivers individual businesses.

Although, I think that Uber rides really should be charging tax. They are already semi-illegal in many places. Trying to dodge the tax man is sure to give the authorities even more reason to shut them down.

Here in Australia you don't have to collect GST if you gross less than $80kpa. You still have to pay it on all goods and services regardless of your income - except those goods and services that are exempt. Transport is not exempt (not considered essential - like tampons).

I guess the question is whether Uber is "collecting" the money - or the driver. (sorry not lunching with the ATO crowd today - so consider that unauthoritative).

Comment: Re:So which is it? (Score 1) 65

Probably something to do with average winnings/hand, playing more hands with the total winnings not increasing much makes the significance weaker.

Is there a difference between what a gambler calls a "useful advantage" and what statistician calls one?

I know a couple of professional poker players - they reckon the "house" has as 5.5% advantage, and are pretty pleased with any system that gives them a 2% advantage.

Comment: Re:Australian here with wishful thinking (Score 1) 125

I would support this if the government:

1. Pursued these companies for company tax, not just make them pass on GST from our pockets. 2. More funding to the ACCC to make these companies actually stick to Australian Consumer Laws (i.e. Sony PSN & Steam) 3. Do something about the price disparity to overseas that can not be reasonably be explained by the tax, shipping, costs to do business in Australia, etc.

But knowing this government, it will just be another hairbrain implementation that hurts anyone who is not a middle/upper-class baby-boomer.

  • 2. ACCC? Aren't they the mob that reckoned Andrew Forrest's (Fortescue) plan to "cap iron ore prices" wasn't "acting as a cartel"? (even though it turned out to actually be the case). About as much chance as ACMA ignoring the Packer funded Christian nutjobs plans for internet filtering (that just happens to block overseas digital casinos) and their directors leaving for jobs with Salmat (quit pretending to police spam and get more money distributing junk mail).
  • 3. You mean like - implement the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Infrastructure and Communications recommendations? Not. Going. To. Happen. Don't forget we need to finance a war. Well several wars actually. And then there's the wars we're not officially in - yet (coughAfricacoughIrancough). Long live perpetual war. Blessed is the USA for they lead us to a partnership of peace and prosperity (and lower domestic petroleum prices).

Comment: Re:Uber isn't collecting GST? (Score 2) 125

It makes no sense at all if Uber isn't collecting GST. The GST is essentially a value-add tax applied to all domestic sales of goods or services. It doesn't apply to hobbies, exports, and personal imports up to a certain value. But I can't see any way Uber should be exempt from GST. It's clearly provision of a service for money, and hence subject to GST. Yet another way these goons think they can just avoid the law.

If you charge to drive someone somewhere GST applies. No special case for Uber. Source: ATO Canberra.

Comment: Re:Don't break user space! (Score 2) 469

by Demonoid-Penguin (#49636443) Attached to: Why Was Linux the Kernel That Succeeded?

Drinks kool-aid?

Linux is a monolithic system. Not so great, read efficient in a distributed space.

Reason Linux was successful:

Timing: Everyone was fed up on FOSS OSes.

blah, blah, piss, piss, diss, diss.

Linux worked, Linux still works. You can and could submit changes and they would either be accepted or rejected. They are the reasons Linux is successful. Sure the piss on the furniture posters can point to obscure kernels that theoretically are "better" - but, ironically, they miss the point - it is the most widely used kernel. So all the reasons other kernels are "better", are wrong.

Pointing to timing is like claiming that Google, eBay, Ffffacebook, and Amazon all succeeded because they were a better idea, or just the right timing - which is also bullshit or other good ideas wouldn't have failed. They all succeeded because they were "good" (not best) ideas, the timing wasn't terrible, and the projects controlled the engines that drove the projects (Open Source). Same reason Linux the kernel and various userlands, that bum weasels conflate as the same thing, succeeds. Google, IBM, and others "get it" (why re-invent the wheel when long-term support and testing are by far the biggest part of development costs?).

Comment: Re:That's an expensive dog! (Score 1) 101

by Demonoid-Penguin (#49582519) Attached to: A Cheap, Ubiquitous Earthquake Warning System

Why would you need to buy everyone in California a Jack Russell?

Agreed. It's a sad state of affairs when an anonymous coward makes more intelligent comments than posters with an account. If some breeds of dog can reliably detect distant earthquakes why the fuck would thousands of dogs be required for a warning system? And even if that was a requirement - there are already thousands of dogs. (sigh).

I made the comment about dogs in partial jest. I was kind of hoping someone would post to a serious study about the ability of animals to detect P waves. Noted that P waves don't travel far: but it's unlikely they don't also create other effects (acoustic, electrical); they match the warning period. I've also heard anecdotes that high frequency noises produced by rock particles sliding over each other during the early compression stages may precede the events that cause P waves.

I've seen some bad studies that make the presumption that all dogs have the same hearing abilities and reactions to certain frequencies (the worst are the lost dog "statistics") - but none that would likely produce useful results. It did occur to me that there's (possibly?) no money in an earthquake detection system based on animals - thought there may be something to the considerable body of anecdotal evidence.

Where I live there is an artillery firing range nearby - my dog would always, reliably, indicate a mortar explosion a few seconds before I felt it through the floor. but not in the same manner as an earthquake. She'd jump on my lap and try and burrow under my jumper. The shaking, eye-bulging and hair raising on the ridge of her back was the same as when an earthquake (hundreds of miles away) would occur - but when earthquakes were about to happen she wouldn't jump up and she would frantically try and drag me (grab trouser leg with teeth and drag towards door) outside. I suspect she wasn't unique and other owners of Jack Russells on nearby properties reported the same behavior.

Given the number of earthquakes and degree of damage they do I'm surprised no one seems to have done a serious study. I wouldn't consider my experience a serious study - though I always took it seriously (zero false alarms). Reasons she may not of been able to detect earthquakes: perhaps she thought is was a really big mortar and had some ability to detect an electrical effect (no hair on her belly), or sound that warned of an imminent explosion (detonators? some of the bangs are just buried plastique, not mortars) ; human bias meant I just don't remember false alarms; other faults I can't think of.

Kiss your keyboard goodbye!