I've been watching storage price trends for the past five years.
Cost per 10TB of storage:
- Jul 2009: Platter = $750, SSD = $28,125
- Jun 2012: Platter = $567, Flash = $8,200
- Nov 2013: Platter = $450, Flash = $5,417
- Today: Platter = $373, SSD = $3,750
SSD progress has been amazing. The price for SSD storage is now 10x that of platters, compared to 37.5x in 2009. The cost for a platter drive today per TB is 50% of what it was five years ago, but for an SSD it is only 13%! Does it look like SSDs are about to take over? Not so fast. The rate of advancement has been slowing every year, and meanwhile platter drives are adopting major new technology this year.
Using a simple historical price model, I don't expect we would see price equivalence by 2020. However, by the end of that year SSD's may only cost 2x that of platter drives, and platter manufacturers will be very nervous.
Cost predictions per 10TB of storage:
- Dec 2016: Platter = $275, SSD = $1560
- Dec 2020: Platter = $160, SSD = $328
- Oct 2023: Equivalence. $109 for either technology.
- 2035: 10TB costs under $1 and is included in Happy Meals.