Two of the big pending MA deals right now are Google's purchase of DoubleClick and the proposed tie-up between XM and Sirius. In the case of Google and DoubleClick, it's been assumed that the deal will clear regulatory muster, despite opposition to it from Microsoft. The Sirius-XM deal, however, has been seen as a longshot, in part because of the aggressive opposition to it from terrestrial broadcasters. But two new reports are pouring cold water on the conventional wisdom. An analyst at Bear Stearns believes that the satellite radio deal is looking increasingly likely, a conclusion arrived at by monitoring hearings and reviewing FCC documents. Meanwhile, a Washington policy expert believes that the FTC is likely to block the DoubleClick deal (via Tech Trader Daily), in light of the high concentration of online advertising power that Google would obtain through the deal. Whether you agree with his conclusion or not, he does argue persuasively that this market has indeed become quite concentrated. He also ends with the seemingly inevitable conclusion that Google is set to replace Microsoft as the chief target among the antitrust set.

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