Microsoft's mistake was waiting too long between major OS updates. Starting with Windows 1.0, Microsoft released a new version every 2-3 years. Windows XP came out in October 2001. But Vista didn't come out until Jan. 2007. This allowed XP to become well entrenched especially in business. It was the practice at many companies that bought new computers, to downgrade Vista to Windows XP Pro. Windows 7 was a success because companies finally upgraded their computers that they had bought in 2003-2005.

I'll do you one better.

We have several high end interferometers manufactured by a company that no longer exists. The equipment is worth ~$900,000.

And they are all controlled by computers running Windows 98.

Considering that one of the reasons to get a Surface would be to get the free Office RT, do you think people will delete it?

Maybe they will when they realize that it won't run macros, third party add-ins or VBA.

http://www.theverge.com/2012/8/7/3225165/office-2013-rt-macro-vba-add-in-features-support

Considering that the pre-installed software on the Surface uses 12GB of space, Advantage : iPad,

http://www.businessinsider.com/microsoft-surface-storage-size-2012-10

Cycling is common in countries like the Netherlands because the roads and cities are designed to accommodate bikes. Also, the Netherlands is a rather densely populated and flat country with a moderate climate making cycling an attractive option for a primary mode of transportation.

The last time there was a major change to the US roads was in the 1950's and that was designed around cars. Also, there are far more hilly areas and freezing winters that cycling isn't that attractive. Then there's the suburban sprawl that makes commuting to work on a bike not very practical.

Not really. The PC desktop market is quite different from the smartphone market.

The PC desktop market in the 80's and 90's was mainly businesses and a small minority of the home market. Microsoft dominated with DOS and then Windows. Microsoft cemented their position with Windows 95. It gave users a good enough GUI that could run on existing hardware (that they spent a few grand on) and could still run DOS and windows 3.x software(that they spent a few hundred on). The other choice of buying a Mac meant spending a few grand on new hardware plus new programs and there was no guarantee that the PC files could be read on a Mac.

Now look at smartphones. They cost about $300, apps are either $0.99 or free and most of their content(pictures and music) can easily be transitioned between them. There is less of a barrier to moving between platforms. I think this will make it difficult for one player to get a dominant 90% marketshare.

Actually, I would be more satisfied with AT&T if I could get a signal IN a city. Specifically, inside a building.

Since most web usage surveys show iOS leading over Android, I think you are right in the "feature phone" assessment. My mother-in-law has a HuiWei phone. She uses it make calls...and that's about it. It was a cheap pre-paid smartphone that replaced her cheap pre-paid feature phone.

Apple is already selling a low-end phone: the 3GS. It looks like they will still be selling it when they launch the new iPhone this fall. It will probably be sold thru pre-paid carriers at around $150 or less. They are already doing this in India.

Apple is going to have an interesting lineup this fall. They will have the new phone at $200, $300 and $400 price points. The iPhone 4S will be at $100. And the iPhone 4 will be free on contract. And unlike the 3GS, it will be available on AT&T, Verizon and Sprint. Couple that with them closing a deal with the number cell carrier in China, Apple could have a huge year next year.

I think in your last line you meant, Android partners are looking to build their own software. I expect Samsung to pull an Amazon, and fork Android. At the least, Samsung will have their own App/Content store within the next year or so. By having their own ecosystem, they hope to differentiate from the rising fortunes of cheap phone makers in China like HuiWei and ZTE.

Well, in the 90's, Apple did license their OS to clone makers. It didn't work out too well for them. What changed? The iOS ecosystem happened. Cheap apps for $5 or less and free OS upgrades. Basically, Apple commoditized software.

It looks Apple has been working on administrative tools for enterprise IT
http://www.apple.com/iphone/business/integration/

I assume that Google does the same for Android.

"There are 30 million active Xbox Live accounts, which must make them a great deal of pure profit."

Go to http://www.microsoft.com/investor/EarningsAndFinancials/Earnings/PressReleaseAndWebcast/fy12/Q2/default.aspx Here you can look at their financial statements for the last few years. Check the line item that shows the Operating income for the Entertainment and Devices Division on the statments going back to 2004. I put together a table:
2004 (1,220)
2005 (391)
2006 (1,284)
2007 (1,892)
2008 497
2009 169
2010 618
2011 1,324
At the end of fiscal year 2011, the entertainment and devices division was still about $2.2 billion in the hole. Now the first two quarters of 2012 were good( a total of $880 million) but look here: http://www.microsoft.com/investor/EarningsAndFinancials/Earnings/PressReleaseAndWebcast/FY12/Q3/default.aspx They lost $229 million this past quarter. That means they are still about $1.5 billion in the hole on this little Xbox venture. And with their Online services consistently losing money( in the billions), they better hope Windows Phone 7 and Windows 8 are huge this year.