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Comment Re:How would nukes exert force on an asteroid? (Score 1) 150

Basically, the x-rays will ignite the surface of the asteroid instead. If the material in the asteroid is sub-optimal for this purpose, there have been designs of turning a nuclear bomb into a kinetic weapon that should work in this regard. Basically the bomb sits in an x-ray reflective shell, and when the bomb explodes, the x-rays bounce around the shell before the exploded bits of the bomb destroy it and exit an aperture. At the end of the aperture is a large, dense block of x-ray absorbing material. This material is vaporized by the x-rays and is all traveling in a similar direction as the x-rays were all going in that general direction. This plasma moving at relativistic speeds then slams into the target like a nuclear shot gun blast. IIRC, this design was built for using nuclear bombs against space ships and it was estimated that it could direct 95% of the energy of the bomb at the intended target.

I second that. Masterful tech writing.

This description of Orion propulsion also describes the 'Casaba-Howitzer', a one-shot Orion optimized for a narrow, fast plasma jet. Here objective is more similar to Orion than punching through armor: the most complete, reliable and (as much as possible) directed transfer of energy. The Casaba-Howitzer concept is not even in the declassified SDI flava stuff that DOE is permitted to talk about.

We all love Delta-V-expensive solutions that involve maneuvering 'beside' or 'landing on' a threat (which by definition is heading straight towards us at 10-30kps. There are no cloverleafs in space, people! :) Landing Bruce Willis is out. Doing anything gentle or slow is out. I propose these be shelved for the 'Emergency' context. Parameters are strict. The best we might achieve is some 45 or less approach angle. By this I mean the vehicle's course, the explosion can be directed broadside, as timing allows. The final sequence of events requires precise micro/nanosecond timing. We know our computers are up to it.

Are the warheads? We know how to make warheads that detonate on timing, pressure and 'contact'. But speed is relative and conditions in atmosphere is a cushy affair, a device falling at terminal velocity or missile propelled. Can we assuredly produce a weapon that can range itself accurately or trigger in vacuum, on or just before contact at ~40kps?

And there should be at least three complete missions of them en route, each lagging far enough to escape detonation effects, have enough time to analyze a failure, upload firmware, or adjust course in case we have partial success. And it would br really nice if each mission embodied more than one general approach, or the ability to reconfigure for an alternate strategy... just in case there it becomes clear after the first that the primary will not work. And even an idea that shapes force of a nuclear explosion is a massive fail if a technical snafu has it pointing the wrong direction.

The price of failure is death. And embarrassment.

Comment Goldfish Attention Log (Score 3, Funny) 109

[swims back and forth] "click." TFA here I come. Don't tell anyone.
[opens and closes mouth] Oh Gawd, it's Engadget [enables golly gee-whiz filter]
"...dropped to 8 seconds in 2013 -- about one second less than a goldfish"
Now that's... Huh? Sorry, I missed that. [eats a bubble]
"Thankfully, it's not all bad. While tech is hurting attention spans overall, it also..."
Yeah something good right? Not in the mood for good news. I'll click on something blue.
Oh it's the actual study! "Click". [swims back and forth] Oops, advertising.microsoft.com? Hello.
It's about Canadians. [spits out bubble] That's nice. What a nice couple.
[something something] "and where the true scarce commodity is increasingly human attention"
Glad I'm a goldfish then. We're still not at the research report yet. "Click." Oops, a dialog.
"Download the Canadian attention spans research report (2.0M)
Download the infographic (173K)"

Now why would I just want to get the infographic...? Oh!
I get it! THIS IS the attention span test! "Click: the report"
[plays on bubble Ferris wheel as PDF loads]
That woman is either taking a picture or is trying to scroll text by moving the computer up and down.
She had to stand up to scroll to the top of the page. License plate "71"?. Hmmm. [scroll]
"Think digital is killing attention spans? Think again."
I read this twice, so my opinion is back to what it originally was.
[yadda yadda] "Good news! It's not as bad as you think."
[continuous sirens in the distance] Tornado warning! [rain/branches beat on window]
Maybe it IS as bad as I think. [wind shrieks] Confound this nuisance. [lightning strikes!]
[Power goes out] [minutes pass] [sirens stop] [power comes on]
"AMI BIOS" "Select profile" "Welcome" "starting wlnotify.dll"
[sleeps with eyes wide open CLICK HERE FOR IMPORTANT INFO ]
[open browser] [access slashdot] "Welcome to AT&T (The Fucking Modem)" What the fuck.
[looks at lights] DSL not up. It's NAT-ting my browser traffic to itself. F'king UVERSE.
"Click to run diagnostics." Okay. Click. "Enter modem access code." FUCK.
[fortunately fishbowl is next to modem and curvature magnifies tiny sticker] [enters 10 digit number]
"Ethernet/DSL/PTM: Pass Authentication:Fail" Their computer rebooting after 10 minutes?
I thought nothing was slower than XP. [5 minutes pass] [reload] "Authentication: Pass"
[tabs remembered by voodoo magick] First thing that's gone right. [glances up]
MUSICAL SOUNDTRACK BEGINS FUCK! OH NOOOOOOOOES!
(every icon next to every browser tab has been replaced by an AT&T DEATHSTAR logo.
the only reason this is not in all caps is slashdot's lameness filter. shhhh. don't wake up the lameness filter)
On no, AT&T Is in my mind. I can feel it. Do I have NATty favicon corruption?
[warily, with nervous dread} "192.168.1.254/favicon.ico" [ENTER] [hideous 32x32 AT&T icon fills screen]
[exit viewer] NOO! What brain-dead thweep would serve favicon from a NAT-redirected router?
[slaps Firefox around] It's all your fault! I should downgrade you to 1992! Favicon support!
[AT&T logo still icon on all tabbed sites] THAT LOGO, it keeps winking and blinking at me! I'm insane!
[thrashes about, bumps on glass] Do we have a potion for this? Yesss. A potion [rustles about in bubble castle]
[opens js console]
var fS = Components.classes["@mozilla.org/browser/favicon-service;1"].getService(Components.interfaces.nsIFaviconService);
[squeak] (have old js console it always squeaks)
fS.expireAllFavicons(); [squeak]
[whoosh!] [all icons missing] Already, an improvement. [proper icons reappear] HAPPY HAPPY! JOY! JOY!
[refreshes slashdot, engadget.com, advertising.microsoft.com, opens PDF] Now where were we.
[PDF p.34] "Nose hair trimmer/Safety cutting system" Umm. This does not look like a peer-reviewed journal.
[blows a bubble] Now then, what did I think a peer-reviewed journal should look like?
Maybe it was a peer-reviewed journal and someone spilled Graphic Artist Nanites onto it.
Yes. It's a laboratory accident.
But so am I.
For I am just a goldfish. Hear me roar.
Only joking. Goldfish cannot roar.

(A dramatization based on real events: tornado warning, outage and favicon cleanup)

Comment Because we are all sonic snowflakes (Score 2) 73

âoeOur team of experts will investigate how best to show this to pilots in the cockpit and develop guidance to most effectively modify the aircraftâ(TM)s flight path to avoid populated areas or prevent sonic booms.

Yes. On Sunday it will do this. But Monday thru Saturday this technology will be used to test methods for waging Cymatic Warfare... in which fighter planes slave their autopilots to a central computer that flies them in passes towards a target zone from several vectors, such that the sonic boom interfaces-to-ground converge at the same instant. We have yet to see what might happen as standard building materials are subject to this type of harmonically amplified sonic energy. By Saturday afternoon we'll know.

Because there is no such thing as a single-use technology.

Comment Re:Morgan Freeman? Indiegogo ? (Score 1) 150

Why bother with Morgan Freeman or Indiegogo for asteroids when there is real information out there.

[...] What can we do against asteroids (again 90 minutes with an expert):
  [Dr. Stan Love's NEA lecture]

Great informative lecture I hadn't seen before. But why might I decide to feature a link to IndieGoGo campaign and Morgan Freeman instead of headlining it...? Good question.

Well for one thing, the Emergency Asteroid Defence Project and the IndieGoGo campaign represents a group of people who have decided the threat is actionable and has decided on a specific course of action. People in motion -- regardless of skill set -- will always be the greatest arbiters of change. If the mere presence of a good lecture was sufficient to motivate people, it would have had more than 650 views by now. WHEN the Indie campaign hits $200,000 we'll have a newsworthy item to help shape public perception of the danger, and a few lucky folks will have some cool shoulder patches and bumper stickers.

The best part of possessing totems such as these is explaining their purpose to others.

HAIV is an idea that -- once built -- is deployable on any time scale. If they were pre-positioned in orbit or on the Lunar surface they could intercept as soon as humanly possible in a scenario where doing absolutely nothing is worse. To the folks here who pose gentle solutions that would require years to work, that's nice, but your have to ask yourself Where are we getting these extra years from? Some propose interception as 'the object makes its closest (non-impact) pass', that's nice, but which object are we talking about?

I'm talking about the one we'll discover tomorrow that arrives within six months. Or weeks. That is the specific challenge EADP/HAIV is addressing.

One thing bothers me though. About 8 minutes into the lecture he presents an 'average' of 100 persons per year from asteroid deaths (a statistical munging of millennia of zero followed by billions in a day) with the risk from lightning... as if time and percent of human population lost are simple coefficients in some insurance game. I pose not only that these averages are not 'actionable' figures, they are the result the application of statistics in a context where it is absurd (to put it kindly). Besides, his figures are based an extrapolation from the ~10% objects we know about.

The insurance game is a form of the gambler's fallacy, which works both ways. The day before the KT impact there was the same chance of it occurring as the day after. How we assess risk for bad things that could happen has a greater effect on our survival than all the good ones. In learning about this threat and the magnitude of its consequences, you have bitten into the apple. There is no turning back.

Comment Re:Assuming you are not just trolling..... (Score 1) 150

You used the word "impossible" in relation to something space-related, Space Nutter Central Command is already a beehive of activity as nerds put up the 1960s space posters and prepare the proper religious rites to send out responses...

Don't forget the Theremin Spaaace Music and especially that mechanical clicking sound as Robbie The Robot prepares to speak. We Space Nutters love it because it reminds us of an Olivetti adding machine.

Point out something makes no physical sense, 99 times out of a hundred you'll something along the lines of "on my desk is a computer with a 3TB hard drive". Etc etc etc

I'm with you there. Until we do something astoundingly new and amazing with our technology, miniaturization (even Moore's Law) is an angels on the head of a pin exercise. Tech stocks will probably be flying high on the day of the 'next' KT impact.

Comment Re:The Tea Party (Score 1) 150

I'd love to see them fly into an asteroid.

Great idea! In the spirit of the underwater skeleton 'tea party' in the Colorado River, in tribute to the artist -- space permitting -- it would be really cool if a large unmanned asteroid intercept vehicle could have a windowed 'bridge' with a pair of plastic skeletons seated in lawn chairs. Their grinning skulls would be the last thing that nasty old space rock ever sees.

You get points for style.

Comment Re:nothing will work. (Score 1) 150

They did duck and cover under about 40-100 cm of moist dirt, thus saving the most gentle of the flock from the global pizza or roasting oven of falling impact debris. KT-event: the most delicious of the apocalypses.

Ten thousand billion tons of ejecta, ~30 x Mount Everest. Effects of the KT impact event presented by Rusty Schweickart. ~1 meter of the world's oceans boiled off. 70% of all life wiped out. Bad scales and feathers day. Good mammal hair day. If you like Hollywood panic and CGI, Evacuate Earth and Catastrophe/4: KT

Think on how great it would feel to stop something like that from happening again.

Comment Re:Moon rocks (Score 1) 150

...and how do you propose to BUILD any of this perennial childish sci-fi nonsense?

With our hands, making less than minimum wage. The robots will be busy taking over our jobs on Earth.

The Chinese/Russians/South Koreans will probably be on the moon by 2040, Japan plans an unmanned base by 2020 and Japan/India announced intent to have a permanent base by 2030 but more likely a decade later. A study in grey. Bear in mind that these are visible nation-states but there will be also be an invisible multinational corporate hand behind the early adopters. There will also be a forward-thinking billionaires practicing their Mandarin, Russian and Japanese in the mirror because they're fed up with endless politics.

Notice I didn't pair up the United States with anyone for Lunar exploration, because way things have been going we'll probably be paired up with Iran, Syria, Libya, Lebanon, Somalia and (post-revolution) Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Morocco, (and still) Iraq and Afghanistan to make portions of Earth more closely resemble the surface of the Moon.

Comment Re:Why not a type of Bola? (Score 1) 150

How about shooting some tethers at it and deploying a counter-weight (rocket-powered?) to the object to swing it out of orbit? Make it into a Bola?

David French proposes Trajectory Diversion of an Earth-Threatening Asteroid via Massive, Elastic Tether-Ballast System [2010], although the time frame for the large objects he modeled was upwards of a decade. But IF you do have decades and the materials challenges of the tether (bluntly pointed out in Wired Magazine [2009]) are solved, it offers a low-tech solution that would not require constant vigilance or active control.

Or a massive light saber flung with a cosmic atlatl.

Comment Re:ablation by laser (Score 1) 150

Beam enough laser light at the object to heat its surface to the point that it ablates

Another extreme light solution, also reliant on melting its surface are giant parabolic mirrors deployed near the object. This interesting discussion points out some of the realities of gathering and focusing sunlight.

Once our civilization hits Stage 1.5 on the Kardashev scale we might revisit an idea proposed in 1993 by Paul Birch, How to Move a Planet through the use of what he calls a 'solar windmill' to transfer angular momentum between the sun and planets. It's Rube Goldberg as hell!

"We conclude that through the use of high-velocity dynamic compression member to apply forces efficiently, planetary orbits can be modified on convenient engineering timescales ~30 years, that the cost of such operations is not excessive in conjunction with terraforming or artificial-planet-building projects, that energy can be converted to and from orbital energy with little loss, and that the technique may also apply to the regularisation of stellar motions."

Then we could just bob the Earth and scoot it out of the way. If lowly earthworms are deserving of our protection, surely an asteroid may be.

Comment Re:tennis rackets (Score 2) 150

one million tennis rackets.

A tennis racket of sunlight, as in a change of albedo on part of an object's surface using a light colored mesh, has been proposed for Apophis [2036]. Looks promising for known longer term threats which require small adjustment. From the paper Predicting the Earth encounters of (99942) Apophis [2007] p.13,

"altering the energy absorption and emission properties of a few hundred square meters of its surface (i.e., a 40 x 40 m patch) as late as 2018 could divert Apophis from impact in 2036; that is, the currently unknown distribution of thermal properties across Apophis can make the difference between an impact and a miss. Implementations of such a deïection might include depositing materials on Apophis' surface similar to the Kapton or carbon-ïber mesh sheets being considered for solar sails. With areal densities of 3 to 5 g m^-2 420 to 700 kg of carbon-ïber mesh could cover ~35-100% of the surface of Apophis in material with an emissivity of 0.4 to 0.9. For Kapton, static charge build-up in thematerial or asteroid due to solar UV exposure could aid deployment to the surface in such a low gravity environment. If an actionable hazard is found to exist, it would be necessary to move an object's entire uncertainty region (not just the nominal trajectory) away from the Earth. To provide margin adequate to cover all unknowns for Apophis, larger albedo modiïcations might be required. The modiïcation required will therefore depend on the predicted size of the trajectory uncertainty region in 2036 and thus on the asteroid's physical properties."

Comment Re:Moon rocks (Score 3, Informative) 150

You need a moon base (not manned) to do this right. Then you throw moon rocks at the impending impactor. Doing it from a smaller gravity well means you can sling them into space more easily via something like a magnetic rail gun (yes, you need to put the moon rocks into a container made of iron / steel so it works with a mag solution).

+1 Insightful

A series of mass-produced kinetic impactors launched from the lunar surface by an EM rocket sled, each a ferrous metal cylinder containing lunar regolith with some propellent, attitude jets for course correction, (perhaps) a main engine for additional impact velocity. The probability of several or many reaching target is high. I give you a gold star. We could even retaliate against Mars.

It could be used to target Earth too, let's hope to be mature enough to resist. And hopefully its accuracy is better than Popeye's Pappy as he attempts a warning shot across the bow.

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