I constantly lurk at the nvnews forums and download the official nvidia installers. From previous experiences I can say the following:
1) The installer not working with a new kernel version is a rare event. When it does happen, it's usually an indication that the kernel had major changes. It's not like changing two lines related to the audio stack will break the nvidia installers
2) nVidia is usually very explicit and clear about which kernel versions the driver will work with.
3) They are also usually very fast in releasing a new version. Usually only people who like to use the gushing-rivers-of-blood-edge kernel are affected.