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Comment Re:The usual question: (Score 1) 325

That's an interesting link, and it shows how many companies missed the boat on minimalism. However, I can't believe that no one could conceive of the idea of an iPad-like device before Apple. There are several similar devices found in science fiction, including 2001, Star Trek, and The Incredibles. Apple had great execution but the basic concept is really straightforward.

Every smartphone and tablet will converge on a single design: A thin rectangular touchscreen with a browser, an app store, and a wireless connection. Eventually the line between the browser and the app store will blur. It's as inevitable as a car having four wheels - it was going to be that way regardless of who invented it first.

There is still a little room for innovation in things like peripherals, cameras, processors, screen types, sharing between devices, etc., but these are just ways of dressing up the fundamental concept.

Comment Re:Out of curiosity (Score 1) 479

You suggest writing as one good way to spend time. But what if everyone wrote, and nobody took the time to be entertained and inspired by those writings? Creative expression is valuable, but it requires both creators and an audience.

I certainly agree that a person should find interesting pursuits and not simply absorb entertainment. I just want to suggest that there is room for both of these things as part of a balanced and fulfilling life.

Comment Re:the best way to watch tv (Score 1) 479

The main reason TV has traditionally sucked is the way in which it is delivered and consumed. It is pushed at the viewer on a preset schedule. Viewers are given many channels, and they end up flipping through channels randomly. As a result, the shows are designed to grab attention with loud gimmicks, and they must be written for low attention spans.

However, the landscape is changing, and over the past several years we've had some of the best shows ever made. Because of DVRs and shows on DVD, it is much easier for a person to follow a show completely, and so certain shows are being written more intelligently for people who are paying attention. Because of the internet, it's much easier to read reviews and find shows which are high quality and suited to a person's interests.

Of course, there's also more crap television being made than ever before! But that's why I don't get cable or flip through channels. I choose things that are worth my time. There is also no shortage of awful books and websites, but it's easy for me to skip those things and just read what I care about.

I happen to think TV can be a compelling story telling medium in the right hands. It allows for exploring and developing characters in depth much like a book, but with the visual language and theatrical elements of movies. One show which proves how artistically and excellently this can be done is Breaking Bad.

Comment Updated Price Predictions (Score 5, Interesting) 292

I created some back-of-the-envelope predictions in July 2009 about the cost for 10TB of storage using either type of drive technology. Unfortunately, neither technology has kept pace with my predictions, but SSDs are making much better progress.

Actual July 2009 Prices for 10TB: Platter = $750, Flash = $28,125
Actual June 2012 Prices: Platter = $567, Flash = $8200

Previous Prediction for July 2010: Platter = $528, Flash = $9,868
Previous Prediction for July 2012: Platter = $262, Flash = $1,215
Previous Prediction for July 2014: Platter= $130, Flash = $150
Previous Prediction for July 2019: Platter= $23, Flash = $0.80

It's a shame to see that after three years, the prices are closer to where I hoped to see them in a single year. I think it's time to update my predictions based on what has happened over the previous 35 months. (Yes, I know this in unscientific and silly!)

New Prediction for July 2012: Platter = $562, Flash = $7916
New Prediction for July 2013: Platter = $511, Flash = $5188
New Prediction for July 2014: Platter = $464, Flash = $3400
New Prediction for July 2015: Platter = $422, Flash = $2228
New Prediction for July 2019: Platter = $287, Flash = $411
New Prediction for July 2024: Platter = $178, Flash = $50

These predictions seem much more achievable than last time. In fact, I expect that platter drives will exceed this pace as the industry recovers. I can't believe that platter drives will only see around a 50% price reduction per TB over the next seven years. However, that's been the pace of improvement from July 2009 until now.

The most interesting date will be when the technologies reach price equivalence. This would be August 2020 according to my model, at the price of $260 for 10 TB. My gut feeling is that equivalence will be reached a couple of years earlier than that, but who knows? We'll just have to watch and see!

Comment Re:this is going to be (Score 1) 347

I do. The common mantra seems to be, "Enough privacy to get people to stop complaining." Google, Facebook, Myspace, Microsoft, Apple, Adobe are all guilty of this thinking, and they're showing no sign of letting up.

You're free to find a paid service for your email and web searching needs. When you go to Google's page, you're choosing to trade a little privacy for free services. Most people find this trade worthwhile.

To me the most important factor is whether an ad-supported service makes the effort to respect their users and to be careful with how they use the information they obtain. Places like Google and Yahoo seem to take the approach of respecting the users, although Google has made mistakes recently. Facebook, on the other hands, seems determined to strategically take every advantage possible from their users.

Comment Turing Mario (Score 1) 114

The video of last year's winning AI player is impressive, but it's not anything like watching a real person play. For next year, they should add a Mario Turing contest. The goal is to make an AI player that is the hardest to distinguish from a human player.

This would be relevant to game design, as having opponents and allies who seem to act human can greatly improve a game.

Comment Re:HTML5 Features (Score 5, Insightful) 194

Good points. It makes no sense to take features which have proved useful on the desktop and make them available in the browser environment. Also, someone needs to stand up and tell people to stop developing these browser based applications.

If you want to edit a document, you should install a native application on every PC you want to access it on. You should have to sort out all the details of network storage and collaboration yourself. If you don't have the time or expertise to set that up, you don't deserve to be editing documents. If you accept the convenience offered by such online companies, don't be surprised when many horrible things happen to you!

Comment Re:Uhmmmm (Score 0, Flamebait) 276

It's interesting to me that my idea received one positive and one negative mod, but your negative, dismissive response quickly shot to +5 insightful. We could do with a little open-mindedness.

Depending on the implementation, my idea could result in a bloated mess. I readily admit that. But it's really easy to criticize an idea and call it impossible. When browsers were first released, it would have been thought impossible for them to do anything close to what they do today, and yet here we are. Javascript performance has made great leaps forward because Google was willing to question if those leaps were possible.

I can see two factors which could help my idea succeed. One is the continuing increase in computer power. The other is the chance to actually simplify and optimize the core windowing system code. For it to be sufficiently flexible, it would need to be carefully written. For example, when displaying a tree showing directory contents, the developers wouldn't be thinking about the specifics of the graphics, colors, and spacing. They'd be writing to a general case, which could be made very simple and efficient. Then another piece of code would apply a style to this element. CSS has already shown that styles can be applied with great efficiency.

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