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Comment Re:Lightning chess (Score 1) 63

I found it more of an excursion into simple division.

Most typical lightning game: 1 0
Most typical blitz game: 3 0

3/1 = 3
331/24 ~= 14

Orders of magnitude off. So even the roughest of estimates suggests that lightning games wouldn't be the majority of games. Anyway, there's no need to even use my estimate, since I've now posted freechess's statistics elsewhere in this thread.

Blitz games outnumber lightning games about 5 to 1. (What a coincidence, 14:3 is on the rough order of 5:1.)

Comment Re:Hidden agenda (Score 3, Funny) 355

"I'm fairly certain there's a hidden agenda here. They say it is a voluntary system, but what they mean is that privacy conscious students won't have access to the library. Libraries hold books. Books hold information. Information leads to knowledge. Knowledge is power."

I'm fairly certain that Yoda has a schizophrenic brother.

Comment one in a thousand odds not good enough? (Score 4, Interesting) 776

The odds of this kind of skew are ridiculously low.

We have ages of 27 people. 13 of them are over 65. If you look here, you can compute that of all Americans over 15 years old, 16.5% are over 65. (14.4/(14.4+72.9)=16.5)

I'll be generous and assume that 20% of Toyota owners are over 65.

So in a sample of size 27, what are the odds of getting 13 or more people over 65, when the population you are looking at has only 20% of its people over 65?

The odds of getting that skewed of a sample are only about 1 in a thousand. (1-binomdist(12,27,.2,1)) So despite claims to the contrary, that is indeed statistically significant.

(Disclaimer: I know nothing about where this sample even came from, and am not claiming anything about its validity. I am merely disputing the posts dismissing this sample out of hand without doing some simple math.)

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