Comment Quantum computers today like Analog Computers 1960 (Score 1) 224
The possibilities of quantum computers today are as overstated as were the possibilities of Analog Computers in the 1960's, and I am taking bets that we won't see quantum computers outperform conventional computers on useful tasks within the next 30 years.
Quantum mechanics are a model of reality. They are a useful model, but to think that you can setup reality such that by measuring physical observables you can yield a large, accurate result that is full of information repeats the same fundamental misunderstanding that led to exxagerated expectations when Analog Computers were introduced. Theoretically, an Analog Computer (just like a quantum computer) has "infinite computing" power, even if it is a simple circular slide rule, because in theory, you can setup input values with infinite precision and yield a result with infinite precision, representing an arbitrarily complex computation. In reality, however, you cannot setup the inputs with arbitrary precision, you won't be able to measure the result with arbitrary precision, and the physical model behind a circular slide rule (the Newton mechanics) leaves some aspects of reality unmodeled, so e.g. the effects of gravity bending the space your slide rule resides in will already render the result precision finite.
Physical models are not laws that reality somehow magically abides to. Quantum mechanics are not different from Newton's mechanics in that they do not model every aspect of reality, so even if there wasn't the problem of setting up inputs and measuring outputs with arbitrary precision, results would still be tainted by effects (gravity, "dark engery", "dark matter",
And there is no compelling reason to believe that just because humans currently favor statistical distribution functions for modelling certain aspects of reality, this reality would "evaluate zillions of possibilities results in an instant and conveniently return the one that adheres to the model". "Coherent entangled quantum states" will turn out to take more and more time to be setup and finally become "decoherent" while being measured as the amount of information that is to be procecessed increases.
The one thing that quantum computers will be good at (and maybe better than conventional computers) will be the simulation of quantum systems similar to what they are. But if you need a real banana to simulate what a real banana would do, you are not building a next generation computer - you are just setting up an experiment.