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Comment Re:Everybody Knows (Score 1) 171

It will be manages by a collaboration of Target, Evernote, and Adobe.

Seriously, is there anyone who doesn't think this "third party", whoever it is, won't become a giant "Target" (pun intended) for data hackers? At least the NSA's data centers are on military bases, and they have half a clue about security, Snowden notwithstanding.

Comment Re:global cooling (Score 1) 320

> How can we reduce the amount of fossil fuels we burn without socialists running the planet? I don't think this is a hard question.

That's easy. Make non-fossil energy sources that are cheaper than fossil energy sources. This is already happening, but it will take time for the new sources to displace the old ones (you don't replace a grid's worth of power in a day or a decade).

When I say "it's already happening", I mean the newest utility-scale solar PV plants are coming in considerably cheaper than nuclear, and wind turbines have been competitive for several years. The only reason they are not dominating new installations is Natural Gas is just ridiculously cheap these days.

Comment Re:A promise only goes so far (Score 1) 351

> How would they pull off such an attack

Pools issue only the "Merkle root" of the transactions in the block - effectively the header, which the individual miners then search for a sufficiently low hash for. The pool operator can insert transactions into the block and the miners would not know.

Part of the reason to use the Merkle root is that is independent of the number of transactions. Otherwise hashing would slow down as the network carried more transactions, you have a bigger block of data to pass around to the miners, and for them to crunch hash attempts on. You can see the Merkle root on the list of hashes of a recent block: https://blockchain.info/block-index/457566/000000000000000047665cb7d4db93f66bbdd969f42578588363e8e77e22e31f

http://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/10479/what-is-the-merkle-root

Comment Re:LOVE THESE POSTS! (Score 1) 182

I actually first heard about bitcoin in mid-2011, during the first big price spike, right here on Slashdot. I started mining it back then with my wimpy graphics card. Then that got too hard, so I just started buying them directly. Then I did a crowdfunding campaign with bitcoin that raised 200% of the goal. It's been an amazing experience.

The crowdfunding is to support a project for self-expanding automation ( https://en.wikibooks.org/wiki/User:Danielravennest/SFP/Intro ), where the automated machines make parts to expand the collection of machines. If you set up a distributed network of such machines, doing different tasks, you can use something like bitcoin to automatically pay each other when things are done.

Machines like 3D printers are useful, but they can't do everything. You need a bunch of different ones that between them cover all the different processes for a finished item.

Comment Re:I don't get it (Score 1) 182

> at what point people will realize that a bitcoin is worth more than a promise by somebody to give you a bitcoin.

How is that any different than taking out a loan and promising to pay it back in the future? The risk of non-payment is embodied in the interest rate, along with the risk of you the lender not being around to enjoy the gains. Part of the reason for interest is the lender, being human, has a finite lifespan. When you make a loan you are giving up present use of the money for a larger amount in the future. Since you may not live to enjoy that future, you demand a higher amount of interest to compensate.

Bitcoin futures and savings accounts will also come with interest rates to cover the risks of non-payment, plus a rate based on time.

Comment Re:Drake (Score 1) 265

Followed by the slightly more accurate SWAG (scientific wild-assed guess).

We used to have actual ranges for these in aerospace design. WAG = factor of 10 standard error, SWAG = factor of 3 standard error. 15-50% variance was "preliminary estimates", below 15% was detailed estimates. Normally you plan with a 15% allowance at the start of detailed design for "stuff you haven't thought of yet".

Comment Mining analysis (Score 1) 265

If you think like a geologist or mining engineer, you look at the ore value of the various things you can get out of the asteroid rock. This is % extracted by weight x value/kg.

Platinum might be 1 ppm vs the total mass of the asteroid, and has a value of $46/gram. Since a gram is 1 ppm of a ton, the ore value is $46/ton of raw asteroid.

Launching *anything* on a Falcon 9 rocket costs $4.3 million/ton. Lets assume you can extract 20% of your raw asteroid in propellants, water, and metals. Their ore value is then $860,000 per ton, way more than the platinum. Precious metals are a nifty bonus if you can extract them, but the big money is basic commodities you can get in large volume.

Comment Business Case (Score 1) 265

> Right now we have absolutely no business case we can make that says, we can go get something from an asteroid more cheaply than we can get the material from earth.

Right now there are about 1000 functioning satellites in Earth orbit, with a procurement cost of around $150 million each, thus $150 billion in value. When they break or run out of fuel, they need to be replaced. If you had an orbital service station that could refuel and repair them, you are talking billions of dollars per year of value there. Comparing it to a terrestrial service station, you need a gas pump, service bay for repairs, and a "tow truck" to haul the satellite in for repairs and put it back afterwards.

The gas pump would have it's tanks filled by the asteroid mining if you can do that cheaper than sending fuel from Earth. Since many of the satellites are in Geosynchronous Orbit, they are very close in energy terms to the orbit you end up with after a "slingshot" gravity assist past the Moon on the return trip.

Whether the service station has people aboard, or is remote controlled from the ground I will leave to the mission designers. My guess is a few humans for the hard jobs, and a lot remote controlled (like fetching the satellite). Shipping new hardware to GEO costs about it's weight in gold to buy and launch, so if you can avoid doing that, it is extremely valuable.

Comment Re: Obsolescence (Score 1) 265

We will always have a use for orbital mining as long as the amount of solar energy passing inside the Moon's orbit equals the world's known fossil fuel reserves *every minute*. It's not the metals or water that are important, it is access to that enormous energy flow, which lets us do most anything we want.

The assumption made by Elvis in his paper is wrong, though. 4.5 km/s from Low Earth Orbit only accesses 4% of the asteroids, but you don't want to mine from Low Orbit. You want to mine from the vicinity of the Moon, where you can get a free 1-2 km/s gravity slingshot from the Moon in both directions. Using the Moon plus 4.5 km/s propulsive velocity gives you 8.75 km/s relative to Low Orbit, and that accesses 60% of Near Earth asteroids. So right there you have a factor of 15 larger sample.

4.5 km/s is derived from the Tsiolkovsky Rocket Equation, and implies your propellant burn is 172% of your payload mass. However that equation assumes you start with all the propellant at the start of the mission. If you are mining for propellant, you can do that at several locations in Near Earth space, not just near the Moon. Refueling changes the propellant needs from exponential to linear with delta-V. Let's say you can refuel twice during the trip, for a total of three propulsive intervals. if you are allowed 172%/3 = 57.33% propellant each time, you can travel 2.04 km/s x 3 = 6.12 km/s velocity change for the same amount of propellant. Doing the same calculation relative to LEO, we get 10.4 km/s above LEO as our reach, which lets us access over 70% of Near Earth Asteroids.

Finally, let us assume electric propulsion, which has an exhaust velocity of 50 km/s, and that we can extract 20% of the mass of our vehicle as propellant. That gives us a range of 9 km/s per fueling stop. With 3 stops we can reach 27 km/s, which lets us not only access 100% of Near Earth Asteroids, but is beyond Solar System escape velocity. That means we can mine anywhere in the Solar System - Main belt asteroids, Jupiter Trojans, Kuiper Belt. The ability to refuel plus use of electric thrusters is a complete game changer.

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