Comment Re:Sweet F A (Score 1) 576
I think you are including the wrong variables in your probability calculation. You are looking at a calculation of how much life is likely to be out there and using that to come up with how likely that life is to find a way to 'junp' to our star system.
The problem is that you are making the assumption that such a thing is even possible. What we currenly know about how the universe works basically says it is not possible to excede the speed of light. We have a few theories about 'loopholes' in the physical laws that might allow for it but that has not been confirmed.
Given the aparent size of the universe and number of worlds in it I would agree that the 'life' side of the equation is pretty high however if FTL travel is not possible then it simply doesn't matter. No number of aliens given any amount of head start over us will develop technology that the realities of physics doesn't allow to exist!
You need to multiply your high-probability of advanced alien life against some probability of FTL being possible. Do you even have a number for that? If so where did you get it? Does it smell like the ass it was pulled from? I'm guessing so because we just don't know that yet!