[...] otherwise a surprise 51% attack from a botnet could steal all of your bitcoins.
This is patently false. A 51% attack cannot steal anybody's bitcoins. Stealing coins requires knowing somebody's private key, which amounts to cracking ECDSA, and if somebody can do that they don't need 51% of the computing power to mount it.
Here is what a 51% attacker can and cannot do:
An attacker that controls more than 50% of the network's computing power can, for the time that he is in control, exclude and modify the ordering of transactions. This allows him to:
* Reverse transactions that he sends while he's in control. This has the potential to double-spend transactions that previously had already been seen in the block chain.
* Prevent some or all transactions from gaining any confirmations
* Prevent some or all other miners from mining any valid blocks
The attacker can't:
* Reverse other people's transactions
* Prevent transactions from being sent at all (they'll show as 0/unconfirmed)
* Change the number of coins generated per block
* Create coins out of thin air
* Send coins that never belonged to him
As to:
If you own bitcoin, it's in your interest to invest heavily in mining even after the gold rush is over [...]
Right. Everyone who actually uses bitcoin will have an interest in making sure there's enough computing power out there to prevent even those weaknesses that remain. Plus, note that a 51% attacker doesn't gain that much, financially, from exploiting those weaknesses. They can't really steal very many coins. The most they can do is double-spend, but for large transactions, people will want to wait for at least a few confirmations, which makes the double-spending almost impossible. What a 51% attacker can really do is screw over the network and attempt to destroy it, but if they're investing that much in the computing power, they're financially better off just legitimately mining for the fees. Then they too have a vested interest in perpetuating the integrity of the network.
They're saying that the fee wont be enough to keep people in. Really, but bother to read their counter argument before you spout off about it.
I RTFA. I countered this point in each of my replies. Here it is again. I'll even bold the important parts:
As miners pull out, it will get easier to mine blocks. There will never be a shortage of computation power to run the network, because if half the miners pull out, it'll get twice as easy to mine blocks. If 75% of the miners pull out, it'll be 4x easier to mine blocks. If 90% of the miners pull out, it'll become 10x easier to mine blocks.
Get it? Whatever the number of miners, transactions will continue to be verified at exactly the same rate. Look at the hashrate chart. The network was chugging along just fine in July when there were < 1,000 terahashes/second. Now there are over 40,000 terahashes/second. So if 97.5% of the miners drop out, the network will run just as well as it did in July, that is, perfectly fine.
So when you reply, tell me again why it is a problem if some miners decide to pull out? Please don't just repeat once again that the article says that the fees will be too low and thus the miners will pull out. I get that that's what the article says. Why is this an issue, given the above?
This was evident to those of us 3 years ago, who casually downloaded the bitcoin client, left it run for a week or so, and saw not one coin in return. We (by which of course I mean "I") subsequently lost interest and uninstalled the client.
Yep, bitcoin has been doing really poorly over the past 3 years.
Really, what is the difficulty of mining when all coins are mined?
"The difficulty is adjusted every 2016 blocks based on the time it took to find the previous 2016 blocks." So if it takes 14 days (2016 * 10 minutes) to mine 2016 blocks, the difficulty is exactly the same. If it takes more than 14 days, the difficulty is lowered. If it takes less than 14 days, the difficulty is raised. The difficulty has nothing to do with how many new coins are being generated.
Thus, if there are fewer miners, it will take longer to mine the blocks at the current difficulty, so when the next 2016 blocks have been mined, the difficulty will decrease.
Also note that as the difficulty decreases, it becomes cheaper and cheaper to mine. So the difficulty will adjust to whatever it has to be so it's economically feasible based on the amount of fees gotten from the transaction volume.
"Who alone has reason to *lie himself out* of actuality? He who *suffers* from it." -- Friedrich Nietzsche