Comment Re:quickly to be followed by self-driving cars (Score 1) 904
pissing your money away every month to a landlord who does own the building and making a profit off of you is much better
You mean the bank?
I have been telling people as of late that interest rates need to go up to 11%-14%. People simply cannot afford a house at $3000/mo payments; more generally, a house isn't sold by a price tag, but by a monthly payment. People will pay a particular monthly payment, which is why the falling interest rates came with rapidly rising house prices: that $120,000 house that cost $1150/mo became a $350,000 house that cost $1150/mo.
In any loan, you have a balance to be paid every month, and a continuous compounding interest. That means you may start the month with a $300,000 balance and an $1150 payment, but you'll make your first payment on a balance of around $350,600--meaning your balance only comes down about $500. We tell the lay person there's a "principle" and "interest" payment, but that's sort of a defrauding view, as the simplification precludes a lot of interesting financial management.
Truth be told, your $300k house at an incredibly low interest rate (2.5% would be an $1185/mo payment) will command a $560 principle payment in the early months, and around $625 of interest. You can skip payments by paying those next months's principle, not payment in full: if you pay $5,600, you'll skip ten months's payment, and save $6,250 off the total cost. Most people can't find an extra $560/month, or $5,600 regularly.
At a price of $100k and a high interest rate (14% would be an $1185/mo payment), the situation changes. The total cost still comes to about $325k; however, your early principle payments are around $18. That means coming up with an additional $200 in that first month's payment skips around 10 payments, saving you $11,700 in total. Even scrounging up a few tens of dollars each month takes thousands off the final total--a $100/mo extra payment cuts over 12 years off the 30-year loan, and saves $162k, more than six times the *total* interest paid on a 2.5% interest loan.
Take that all into consideration, the effect of a high-interest-rate market in driving prices down means we only want the lowest interest rate we can get in the highest interest rate *market* we can manage to buy in: we want a 14% market, but we want to secure a 12.25% loan in that market, if we can. Most homeowners only process that they want a low rate, but not what market they want the rate in; they jump at low-rate markets, instead of shying away.
Remember the rich always had 5-10 year mortgages, up until FDR created the 30-year mortgage. Us poor and middle-class came into the market on lifelong bank slavery, never living in an age of general 10-year mortgages. What I describe above implies an easy route to get down to a 15-year mortgage, if the market rates are high, by putting little additional payment onto the home--an additional 8% payment to save 50% off the total purchase cost of the home. If we could spread the idea far enough, consumers may decide the extra is worth it; more importantly, consumers would become accustomed to 15 or even 10 year loans, and so consumers who *can't* afford the extra $150 (or, to get to 10 years, $400) would become wary of buying, driving prices downward.
In other words: a high-interest-rate market gives an opportunity to educate consumers to get 15-year loans. Widespread middle-class consumption of 15- and 10-year mortgages will drive middle class wealth sharply upwards, as people in their 20s enter their 30s suddenly free of that $1200 or $1500 or $2000 monthly payment--filthy motherfucking rich. Besides the broader economic effect, the public mind may react to this by assuming 30-year mortgages are untenable bullshit (especially when the costs of long-term, high-balance debt are understood), and so the poor may refuse to lock themselves into interminably-long loans, requiring a lowering of house prices to keep the housing market solvent.
A generation of sellers would suffer from their lost equity; further generations would notice absolutely no impact in that regard, only that they are much more wealthy after paying their houses off. This is the same, really, as normal fluctuations: increasing house prices make a seller rich, and then later the end of the chain of buyers makes up the balance as his house's value drops. On the other hand, living expense equity has a curious economic effect: if you can escape the mortgage in short order, it acts as a governor on wages. Wages (and salaries) must provide enough for that wage-class to purchase a house; however, since the term is, say, 10 years, the wage class has an enormous amount of free income 10 years into their career--homeowners hit age 30 and suddenly find themselves with twice as much spendable income.
I bought my house when the financial advantage was greater than renting; I'm uncertain about that advantage now, and may have been... immediately better off had I rented for $800/mo rather than taking a $500/mo 15-year mortgage. Nevertheless, I don't believe the extra $30,000 in costs over the first 5 years (nor the probable new roof at a cost of $5000-$8000 in the next 5 years) completely offsets my profitable positioning. I didn't make this purchase as a matter of raw cost minimization; I made it as a matter of leveraging my income stream to cut more recurring costs away. I'm willing to spend $5000 to save myself $4000 if that $4000 comes as a $120/mo reduction in expenses, which of course means $6000 for new heat pumps, $6000 for new insulation, $4000 for new windows, $1000 for masonry work, and so forth, to get sub-$100 monthly utility bills out of a $170-$380 monthly payment (depending on time of year) works for me: even though it's more than an 8 year ROI, the immediate effect is $250/mo less pressure on my accounts, meaning more free income, even though those accounts are badly bruised and battered.
In short: I spend an awful lot of money to immediately save myself financial risk. At the same time, I'm not such a fool as to line my house with expensive solar panels, since they bring their own financial risk.