Submission + - Can statistics predict the outcome of a war? (texyt.com)
StatisticallyDeadGuy writes: A University of Georgia scientist has developed a statistical system that, she claims, can predict the outcome of wars with an accuracy of 80 percent. Her approach, applied retrospectively, says the US chance of victory in the first Gulf War was 93%, while the poor Soviets only had a seven percent chance in Afghanistan (if only they'd known; failure maybe triggered the collapse of the USSR). As for the current Iraq conflict: the US started off with a 70% chance of a successful regime change, which was duly achieved — but extending the mission past this to support a weak government has dropped the probability of ultimate success to 26%. Full details of the forecasting methodology are revealed in a new paper (subscription required — link goes to abstract).