Comment Re:the joker in the formula (Score 1) 686
Also, while you're taking the past into account you're not taking the future. In 4.6 billion years whether you want to say 1 to 12 species evolved depending on how you want to frame it. The Earth has an estimated 5 billion years remaining... so lets say in the next 100 years, even a million years, there's an extinction event and primates all die. That's 4.9 billion years for another intelligent species to develop.
Actually the window for Earth closes a lot earlier than that. In about one billion years, the Sun's steadily increasing luminosity will grow to the point that no amount of Gaian adjustment can compensate for, and Earth will join Venus in the Runaway Greenhouse club.