Comment Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? (Score 1) 497
Big enough to kill thousands of people.
Unless, of course, it's not that big.
There have been many, including the Stern Report. But at this point this is economics/politics, not climate science. Because to answer that question, we must answer questions such as what is the "worth" of a Pacific island nation. Assuming that this worth is > 0, then we should invest a non-zero amount of dollars into avoiding/mitigating/adapting to climate change.
Economics is a place where global warming predictions are egregiously wrong.
The Stern report in question overestimates future damage from global warming due to overly low time value (of money and other things) by using an artificially low economic growth rate value in place of the actual inflation-adjusted GDP growth (or similar measures of growth of economic value). For example, the cost of harms a century in advance were overstated by a factor of two.
And other costs are notoriously overestimated. A particularly big one is the alleged cost of sea level rise (coupled with alleged increases in storm strength). The typical approach is to look at the land that is predicted to be inundated (which often is highly priced) and value the cost of global warming as the destruction of that property. This ignores that most of that property will need to be replaced well before sea level rise becomes a factor in its destruction. And if you're going to do that, then a move to higher ground is not a significant additional cost.
Well, unless society chooses to make such activities overly expensive. For example, we could greatly reduce the alleged impact of sea level rise by reforming public flood insurance in the US. Not the world, the US. It's amazing how much of the supposed evidence for global warming, such as citing increased insurance claims for flooding and other extreme weather, relies on ignoring the effects of severely broken human systems. Another such example is the conflating of droughts caused by pumping out an aquifer with droughts caused by AGW.
Similar issues are uncovered with claims of loss of arable land. This ignores the increase in arable land coming from most of the heating occurring in the upper temperate zones of the Northern hemisphere.
How so? Global warming has a positive feedback. Warming melts polar ice, which in turns means less ice reflect solar heat into space, which means more warming of the earth.
And heat radiates into space as the fourth power of temperature. There's your global warming negative feedback.
Reports indicate that the earlier we start acting, the less costly it will be for mankind. Global warming isn't about the end of life on earth. It's about being poorer, globally. We will be poorer in 100 years if we do nothing, because warming will have a significant cost.
So what? Where's the evidence to back up those reports?