Become a fan of Slashdot on Facebook

 



Forgot your password?
typodupeerror
×

Comment Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? (Score 1) 497

Big enough to kill thousands of people.

Unless, of course, it's not that big.

There have been many, including the Stern Report. But at this point this is economics/politics, not climate science. Because to answer that question, we must answer questions such as what is the "worth" of a Pacific island nation. Assuming that this worth is > 0, then we should invest a non-zero amount of dollars into avoiding/mitigating/adapting to climate change.

Economics is a place where global warming predictions are egregiously wrong.

The Stern report in question overestimates future damage from global warming due to overly low time value (of money and other things) by using an artificially low economic growth rate value in place of the actual inflation-adjusted GDP growth (or similar measures of growth of economic value). For example, the cost of harms a century in advance were overstated by a factor of two.

And other costs are notoriously overestimated. A particularly big one is the alleged cost of sea level rise (coupled with alleged increases in storm strength). The typical approach is to look at the land that is predicted to be inundated (which often is highly priced) and value the cost of global warming as the destruction of that property. This ignores that most of that property will need to be replaced well before sea level rise becomes a factor in its destruction. And if you're going to do that, then a move to higher ground is not a significant additional cost.

Well, unless society chooses to make such activities overly expensive. For example, we could greatly reduce the alleged impact of sea level rise by reforming public flood insurance in the US. Not the world, the US. It's amazing how much of the supposed evidence for global warming, such as citing increased insurance claims for flooding and other extreme weather, relies on ignoring the effects of severely broken human systems. Another such example is the conflating of droughts caused by pumping out an aquifer with droughts caused by AGW.

Similar issues are uncovered with claims of loss of arable land. This ignores the increase in arable land coming from most of the heating occurring in the upper temperate zones of the Northern hemisphere.

How so? Global warming has a positive feedback. Warming melts polar ice, which in turns means less ice reflect solar heat into space, which means more warming of the earth.

And heat radiates into space as the fourth power of temperature. There's your global warming negative feedback.

Reports indicate that the earlier we start acting, the less costly it will be for mankind. Global warming isn't about the end of life on earth. It's about being poorer, globally. We will be poorer in 100 years if we do nothing, because warming will have a significant cost.

So what? Where's the evidence to back up those reports?

Comment Re: Science by democracy doesn't work? (Score 1) 497

It never ceases to amaze me that peopel make the argument that somehow the profits to be made from promoting a "global warming agenda" eclipse the profits and therefore dominate the national interests of the fossil fuel industry.

Why is that amazing? The numbers are huge on both sides. And given that we are seeing record profits for the oil companies at the same time that we're seeing this global warming hysteria, it reminds me that profit from each ideological approach is not mutually exclusive!

Comment Re:Science by democracy doesn't work? (Score 1) 497

Let say science is 90% confident that a comet is going to crash on the earth

How big is this comet? We already know Earth gets hit by comets frequently (meaning we're already 100% confident that a comet will crash on Earth). And of course, we're ignoring the unscientific exaggerations of comet impact likelihood and harm which would accompany this prediction.

Man made climate change is happening. Are we 100% confident? No, but close enough so that we should live accordingly. Again, is the science 100% settled? No. But while we continue research on the matter, there is no reason not to act.

Where's the analysis of the relative costs and benefits of acting and not acting? Not acting has substantial benefits with respect to dealing with future global warming while acting has both substantial present day harm and not very impressive future benefits even if global warming is as bad as claimed.

This "we have to do something" impulse is also stupid. For example, you will die at some point. But if you kill yourself now, you won't die at any point in the future. It fixes the problem of dying in the future far more completely than any alternative method. Since we have to do something now, killing yourself is the obvious choice for best approach.

Comment Re:Bias: but for them - not me! (Score 1) 497

I think this is why climate alarmism will ultimately fail. You say things about an AC which are clearly untrue. The AC didn't say those things, you did.

And if we use that graph you linked as our "trend" (ignoring that 1970 is not a good starting point because it's near a local minimum), then we see around 1.5 C heating from 2000 to 2100. That currently is much less than the forecasts are projecting (2 C being a bare minimum and 4 C being the most common prediction).

Comment Re:lol (Score 0) 323

This is effectively what you would be doing by handing over your password.

It's just like handing over keys to a storage cabinet you own. There's no Fifth Amendment protection here. You aren't being forced to testify against yourself.

The Fourth Amendment protects against unreasonable searches, such as forcing a student to hand over a password to a Facebook account or a key to a storage cabinet without a warrant.

Comment Re:Sounds about reasonable for once... (Score 1) 148

Every time the National Guard is called in to put down disturbance, that's a violation of the constitution which does not permit the military to be used against the citizenry.

The state governments are not subject to the same rules as the federal government. And the National Guard are elements of the US military that belong to the states.

Comment Re:Stands to reason (Score 1) 181

Why turn ACs into a group of social outcasts?

Because I can't tell any of you apart from the trolls, shills, and other vermin that skitter through these halls. If you have a pseudonym, I can with some pain, search through your previous posts and decide if you're on the level or not. I figure a person who cranks out more than half a dozen similar posts probably isn't faking it, that takes too much work for the usual troll.

But a one-time AC post? There's far less effort involved.

I notice in your link that most of the posts that were highly rated, were posted by people with an account. It's not that hard to set up an account just to post an anonymous message.

Slashdot Top Deals

He who steps on others to reach the top has good balance.

Working...