I more or less agree with your assessment (but I'll eventually disagree ha ha!). My formal education was in music performance. However my hobbies were (and are) computer science, amateur radio, physics and theology. Yes I'm an autodidact. But have studied at two major universities.
In the realm of critical thinking... a deep theoretical understanding is priceless. Because theory is flexible. But more important in my mind is an understanding of the RFCs behind how all this stuff works. Know them, and you can really troubleshoot. Know them, and you get to be the "pro from Dover" when no other tech can solve a problem.
With a mass of knowledge- comes the possibility of thinking critically. This is of course assuming the person in question has a mind big enough to form quality theories of their own. The problem isn't always education... it's also quality of the brain. And the larger a field grows, the lower the mean IQ of it's members.
To illustrate:
I once watched a recent computer science graduate (A Truly Dubious and Short Lived IT Director) introduce a recursive loop into an Ethernet network, on an unswitched segment, which resulted in (you guessed it) significant portions of an 18 building WAN/LAN system to simply go offline. Explaining to this person why things didn't work was useless. They thought they were an expert (because of the degree). Sadly, all of the information they spouted about the problem was completely correct- except the application of that information.
You can't really teach people how to apply information, if they cannot build working models which closely match reality. Sure.. anyone can come up with an idea and call it a theory. But can you come up with a theory that works?
So in a sense, I fall back once again to the idea that the talent pool is diluted. At the same time, the equipment is becoming more and more appliance packaged.
My solution? I'm looking around for something different to do for the next 30 years. If I can get up to speed fast enough, I'll participate in AMSAT. I'll go back to performing music. Maybe even get a physics degree.
But I'll be free to be excellent.