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Comment Re:Password protected CSV? (Score 1) 167

I'd hardly consider cutting off their funding sources as "not taking any action", and further, that the U.S. didn't assassinate him doesn't mean that they're not behind the efforts to legally harass him. I realize that the U.S. seems to "reach for the stick" as a solution to most of it's problems nowadays, but it can be a bit more subtle than that when called for. They don't need him dead (heck, that'd likely be counterproductive), they just need to render him ineffective and make an example of him to anyone else who'd choose to be a nuisance in the future so they'll think twice.

Comment Re:Is anybody really surprised? (Score 1) 395

And just who pays for the interest on those Treasury bonds? Why, the rest of the government, funded by taxes and borrowing. Money is fungible. As I said before, if we charged the tax but didn't provide the benefit, the government would have a much rosier financial picture.

Sure, if we just steal the money (they're real treasury bonds) or default on our debts it'd make things better in terms of held debt, but it'd be wrong to do so. Sure money is fungible, but SS income doesn't go into the general fund. The SS administration invests any surpluses in treasury bonds, like many pensions, since they're the safest investment around. The bonds fund government deficits, just like all bonds, but that they're held by the SS administration doesn't make them somehow unreal.

Consider the case of the hypothetical state of Columbia. Columbia decides to introduce a lottery to pay for improvements to public education. Of course, if the lottery earns less than the amount normally spent on public education, it merely replaces the dollars previously allotted from the general fund while freeing up those dollars to be spent elsewhere. Let us assume that the crack legislative team that wrote this included a special provision that - should the expenses of public education be lower than the money raised - the money must be saved, by buying state bonds. Money is saved for a long rainy day, for decades. Finally, the day arrives that the expenses are greater than the tax collected. Now where does the money come from to pay those expenses? Well, the public school system redeems some bonds. Where does the money come to pay off the bonds? From the rest of the state government, which has to collect it in taxes, borrow it from elsewhere, or cut it from the funding of other programs - or cut education until it starts to provide surpluses again. Borrowing money from yourself is a neat trick that sovereign states can get away with longer than anyone else, and it was critical to get people to support SS, but the program has always been supported on current revenues, and when it can no longer depend on those, it will start to take money from the rest of government.

What you seem to be missing is that the deficit that the bonds are sold to pay for exists regardless of whether the education department (in your example) or Social Security (in the actual case) buys some of them. So, if SS weren't buying bonds, they'd have just been sold to other investors. If you're creating a hypothetical where the bonds were issued simply to soak up a surplus, then it's nothing similar to SS, where the debt would be the same regardless but just held in other places.

Comment Re:Is anybody really surprised? (Score 1) 395

The actual numbers are less than half of that: Additional income, sales, and property taxes are assessed at the state and local levels. In the most recent year, overall tax revenue as a percentage of GDP was 26.9 percent. That's from the liberal Heritage foundation ranking page for the US ( http://www.heritage.org/index/Country/UnitedStates )

There is something wrong with your link. But let's say that number is right for the federal government. Add in state spending, which obviously differs by state, but let's say New York. In 2010 New York state spending was $283 B with a state GDP of $1114 B, which means state taxes had to be about 25% to cover the spending. (New York seems to be pretty typical, e.g. Alaska 36%, Mississippi 28%, New Jersey 21%, Oklahoma 21%, Oregon 26%, etc.) For New York, 26.9% and 25% is 51.9%. Alaska would be 62.9%. Admittedly it looks like the typical state is in the neighborhood of 50% and I claimed 60%, but it's hardly "less than half of that" and there do exist states with total taxation in excess of 60% of state GDP between state and federal taxes.

Nope, the 26.9% is inclusive of state and local taxes. Federal taxes last year were about 15% of GDP (they're usually closer to 18% or so:

http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2010/12/06/chart-of-the-day-u-s-taxes/

Even the Scandinavian countries, which have the highest tax rates in the industrialized world aren't as high as what you're asserting for the US. Our effective tax rate is lower than it's been in decades, and is quite low for a modern industrialized country.

Taking a 10% deficit as the baseline also massively overstates the structural problem. Yes, the past 2 years have had those ~10% deficits, but unless you're predicting that the economic slump that we're just now starting to recover from will go on in perpetuity, or get worse, it's not a reasonable baseline.

The 10% deficits are the current reality. Unless your point is to just continue to run those kind of deficits today and for the next few years and then try to pay for them with tax increases five or ten years from now?

Um, yes. First, as the economy recovers, tax receipts increase and social spending for the impacted citizens will drop significantly, both which will significantly improve the deficit. Increasing taxes or decreasing spending when the economy is sucking wind is a recipe for making things worse (which actually serves to make deficits worse and costs more in the long term due to the extra damage to the economy and workforce).

Moreover, there are differences between today and recent history. Right now debt as a percent of GDP is higher than it has been since the end of WWII, and unless we make significant cuts today it's going to get worse before it gets better. It's already about twice what it was when Regan took office. The only reason the interest isn't a present catastrophe is that interest rates are so low, and if the economy starts to recover then interest rates go back up and servicing the debt is going to seriously cut into the tax windfall that economic growth might otherwise produce.

Add to that the baby boomers retiring and removing their productive capacity (and income tax payments) while at the same time putting severe stress on social security and medicare as they start collecting rather than paying in.

Well, again, Social Security has nothing to do with the deficit, so in terms of a discussion about deficits, it's irrelevant. In terms of interest rates, sure, if rates increase it makes interest payments go up. That being said, that only becomes a problem if we either can't pay for it, or we're so politically dysfunctional that we won't. Japan has a much higher debt to GDP ratio (more than twice ours) and their interest rates are around 1%, so it's not a given that we're near some sort of tipping point. If republicans keep pushing for us to default on some or all of our debt though, we'll see how high rates can go I suppose.

Finally, Social Security is a dedicated funding stream and it can't contribute to the deficit by law. You could cancel the program tomorrow and it'd not change the actual deficit one bit (the reported "unified budget" deficit/surplus numbers are misleading since they include SS income, but that has nothing to do with the actual accounting).

This is just accounting shenanigans. If there was a cut in social security or medicare then the tax money currently going to those programs could be spent in reducing the deficit. The fact that you would, as a matter of accounting, end up reducing the social security tax and raising the general income tax by an equivalent amount in order to bring it about changes nothing about the actual impact of the change: Money distributed in social security checks is money that isn't, and could be, spent covering the deficit.

Um, again, No. Social Security has dedicated funding. You and your employer pay into it as a separate line item, and that money can't be "re-purposed", and the surpluses that were deliberately built up over the past 2 decades to cover the baby boom bulge are real money, invested in real treasury bonds (they're actually in filing cabinets in West Virginia, IIRC).

Comment Re:Is anybody really surprised? (Score 1) 395

Those "IOUs" are Treasury bonds, like all of the others that are in circulation. They're not illusory or false, nor stolen and we're obligated to honor them as we do all of our debts. Social Security's finances are entirely separate from the general fund (well, aside from the perpetual lie that is the "unified budget" topline number), and can't contribute to the deficit.

Comment Re:Is anybody really surprised? (Score 1) 395

Nope. Social Security has a dedicated funding stream which isn't mixed with the general fund. Given the baby boom demographic bump, the SS tax has been set at a rate that's been running a significant surplus for the past 20 years or so in order to build up a trust fund for the years where the draw from it will be worst. That trust fund, like many risk-adverse funds, is invested in Treasury bonds. By law, if the SS trust fund runs out (all of the bonds are redeemed) and it can't pay full benefits, then it just can't pay full benefits; it can't contribute to the deficit.

Comment Re:Is anybody really surprised? (Score 2) 395

You could increase taxes.

Let's think about that for a minute. Right now, between federal, state and local taxes, governments in the US collect about 60% of GDP as tax revenue.

Bullpucky. The actual numbers are less than half of that: Additional income, sales, and property taxes are assessed at the state and local levels. In the most recent year, overall tax revenue as a percentage of GDP was 26.9 percent. That's from the liberal Heritage foundation ranking page for the US ( http://www.heritage.org/index/Country/UnitedStates )

For the last couple of years the federal deficit has been a little over 10% of GDP. So if you want to balance the budget by raising taxes, you have to raise the 60% to 70%.

Taking a 10% deficit as the baseline also massively overstates the structural problem. Yes, the past 2 years have had those ~10% deficits, but unless you're predicting that the economic slump that we're just now starting to recover from will go on in perpetuity, or get worse, it's not a reasonable baseline. In recent history, we average something more akin to 2-3% (though reagan did manage average something around 4% for a good chunk of his cutting and spending spree)

So, given realistic numbers, the structural deficit that we're facing is certainly something that could be addressed by targeted tax increases if that's what we chose to do.

Finally, Social Security is a dedicated funding stream and it can't contribute to the deficit by law. You could cancel the program tomorrow and it'd not change the actual deficit one bit (the reported "unified budget" deficit/surplus numbers are misleading since they include SS income, but that has nothing to do with the actual accounting).

Comment Net Neutrality creates jobs (Score 1) 187

Net Neutrality creates the level playing field that fosters competition. That's how jobs, and new industries, are created. A robust, dynamic net ecosystem helps all of us. The telcos just want to set themselves up to extort a portion of the profits from successful net companies ("that's a nice search engine that you have there, it'd be a shame if no one could get to it...") and control who and how you're able to interact.

Comment Re:How can maintaining the status quo cause job lo (Score 1) 187

I guess that might match some minimum wage manufacturing jobs, if those even exist any more, but given that most minimum wage jobs are service sector, I don't think that outsourcing is so much an issue. It's not like they'd ship my burger patty off to India to be flipped or anything; there are many jobs that are essentially inherently local.

Comment Re:How can maintaining the status quo cause job lo (Score 1) 187

<quote><p><i>"The minimum wage laws have little if any effect on the number of jobs or the standard of living."</i></p><p>So then why not just make the minimum wage 30$ an hour? After all, if min wage has little, if any effect on the number of jobs then it should just work right?</p><p>Heck, lets make it 100$ an hour.</p><p>1000$</p></quote>

Because that would be stupid?

Given the realistic levels of minimum wage that anyone is speaking of, employment effects are indeed minimal (It's been studied in states when there was an increase, and no notable impact on employment was noted). In terms of the standard of living, for the person going from $5->$7 an hour, it'd be a significant improvement. As most people don't make the minimum wage or close enough to be an issue, inflation from it is similarly minimal. So, the person pulling in $50k a year might notice an extra dime on their big mac, but it's not like that'd be a significant hardship.

Comment Re:How can maintaining the status quo cause job lo (Score 1) 187

HIghways, public health expenditures/disease eradication, public education, basic science research all seem to be investments that ultimately raise our standard of living (better transit, healthier, better educated workforce, etc...). That's not even getting into that whole "system of laws" thing, which is the foundation upon which most of the rest of it rests. Your comment sounds quite like the "the government never created a job" sort of talk, which is similarly silly.
Social Networks

Xbox Live Now Allows Gender Expression 348

Last year we discussed news that an Xbox Live gamer was banned for identifying herself as a lesbian on her profile. Microsoft said at the time that nothing sexual in nature could appear in Gamertags or profiles. Now, they seem to have reconsidered their stance, and they've updated their Code of Conduct accordingly. Xbox Live General Manager Marc Whitten wrote: "[The update] will allow our members to more freely express their race, nationality, religion and sexual orientation in Gamertags and profiles. Under our previous policy, some of these expressions of self-identification were not allowed in Gamertags or profiles to prevent the use of these terms as insults or slurs. However we have since heard feedback from our customers that while the spirit of this approach was genuine, it inadvertently excluded a part of our Xbox LIVE community. This update also comes hand-in-hand with increased stringency and enforcement to prevent the misuse of these terms."

Comment Re:Playing to the votors (Score 1) 319

Actually, the structural deficit longer term is indeed driven by entitlement spending, but that spending tracks overall healthcare spending in our system since Medicare buys from the same markets as everyone else (it can do so a somewhat more cheaply due to having a good bit of leverage given it's size, but ultimately that just makes it grow a bit less fast than overall healthcare spending). Thus, controlling healthcare spending and cost inflation becomes critical if we want to head off huge long term issues. That's what should ultimately be driving our healthcare debate, but alas it's not.

Anyway, 0.5% of the federal budget isn't peanuts. I think that it comes back to a lack of vision with regard to what we're trying to accomplish, so the various programs and initiatives just sort of drift on, burning money. The Apollo program was targeted and specific in what it was trying to achieve (a man on the moon) and lavishly funded as it was more to one up the USSR than achieve scientific goals. It succeeded at it's core goal, but seeing as there wasn't really a solid vision beyond that, it just petered out once we'd "been there, done that".

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