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Submission + - Mathematicians Study Effects of Gerrymandering on 2012 Election 1

HughPickens.com writes: Gerrymandering is the practice of establishing a political advantage for a political party by manipulating district boundaries to concentrate all your opponents votes in a few districts while keeping your party's supporters as a majority in the remaining districts. For example, in North Carolina in 2012 Republicans ended up winning nine out of 13 congressional seats even though more North Carolinians voted for Democrats than Republicans statewide. Now Jessica Jones reports that researchers at Duke are studying the mathematical explanation for the discrepancy. Mathematicians Jonathan Mattingly and Christy Vaughn created a series of district maps using the same vote totals from 2012, but with different borders. Their work was governed by two principles of redistricting: a federal rule requires each district have roughly the same population and a state rule requires congressional districts to be compact. Using those principles as a guide, they created a mathematical algorithm to randomly redraw the boundaries of the state’s 13 congressional districts. "We just used the actual vote counts from 2012 and just retabulated them under the different districtings," says Vaughn. "”If someone voted for a particular candidate in the 2012 election and one of our redrawn maps assigned where they live to a new congressional district, we assumed that they would still vote for the same political party."

The results were startling. After re-running the election 100 times with a randomly drawn nonpartisan map each time, the average simulated election result was 7 or 8 U.S. House seats for the Democrats and 5 or 6 for Republicans. The maximum number of Republican seats that emerged from any of the simulations was eight. The actual outcome of the election — four Democratic representatives and nine Republicans – did not occur in any of the simulations. "If we really want our elections to reflect the will of the people, then I think we have to put in safeguards to protect our democracy so redistrictings don't end up so biased that they essentially fix the elections before they get started," says Mattingly. But North Carolina State Senator Bob Rucho is unimpressed. "I'm saying these maps aren't gerrymandered," says Rucho. "It was a matter of what the candidates actually was able to tell the voters and if the voters agreed with them. Why would you call that uncompetitive?"

Comment Re:Obsession (Score 2) 154

Don't misunderstand me, I agree. There should be continued search efforts, funded by the airline that lost it. No government is responsible for the loss of those lives. They aren't responsible for notifying the families of the passengers. It is totally up to Malaysia airlines to fund the continued search. Some financial backing can come from governments that represent the passengers, but it shouldn't be a continuing national effort.

As someone else mentioned, Australia is looking for 239 people, while more than that die domestically every day. Even his perception is wrong. There were 6 citizens of Australia on that flight. By passenger count, China should have the largest interest, with 152 citizens lost. As the airline is based in Malaysia, they could be financially responsible for the continuing search.

I believe it's to the point where it's "lost", and until further evidence shows up (washes ashore), it can safely be left marked as in the "lost at sea". That does happen sometimes. Searching could continue when there is new reliable evidence. Otherwise at this time it is a waste of manpower and resources.

Comment Re:Obsession (Score 4, Insightful) 154

They want closure. They're not likely to get it soon though.

They may not even be looking for floating debris. If the pilot was still in control, he may have made a controlled landing. Like the landing on the Hudson. So it may be a intact aircraft at the bottom of the ocean.

It's doubtful that they'd make a landing like that in open seas, but it's (remotely) possible.

But they are really looking for a really small needle in a fucking huge wet moving haystack.

Comment Re:Honest, honey... (Score 1) 189

I just created an account for myself. Apparently men can't see what the competition is like (males interested in women can't search for other males). I picked a few people (friends) who haven't used the site, and they aren't present. I don't see anything on the site that shows how old my account is, but it only has the very basic information that I just provided, so I'd say they hadn't previously auto-created my account from Facebook.

When I "created" mine just now, I did the lost password search using the same email address that I use with Facebook. Apparently they let you create an account that way, if you didn't have one already.

I did notice that they have a one-click account creation, so she could have clicked it in the past to log in, and forgot about it.

So much for a perfectly crappy conspiracy.

Comment Re:First and foremost (Score 3, Insightful) 176

I was going to say something like that, but not as well. I've been in interviews where someone is asked about their experience.

"What experience do you have?"

"I spent 6 years at [university] earning my Masters degree."

"Ok, what *work* experience do you have?"

"I worked for 6 years earning my Masters degree."

"Lets try this again. Have you ever been employed and paid for work in this field?"

"We had projects at [university] where we worked on various projects to earn my Masters degree."

I'm not saying that the original post is that kind of person. He says he worked in IT infrastructure for years. I would think he would have been exposed to the development side, at least a little bit.

Unfortunately, with the questions asked, I suspect it may be more like my example above. If he had the necessary experience, he'd already know, as the owner of whatever new company he's starting, the lead dev is going to provide the best answers to those questions. The lead dev is going to have their own opinions and methods that everyone on their team is going to work with. Unless he's going to do the CEO/CTO/CIO/lead dev rolls all at the same time, which isn't going to work as well as he'd hope.

Comment Re:Not necessarily (Score 1) 195

There's no good reason for trying to make your own OBDII reader. There's a good bit to it. Get an ELM327 compatible reader. I strongly recommend the bluetooth versions, not the serial/USB. You end up with some funny problems, like if there is a difference in ground potential between the computer reading it and the OBDII bus, you can fry the reader.

My bluetooth OBDII reader has been great. I plug it in, or have the driver plug it in, and then I can read data from the passenger seat while we're driving. No wires required, except possibly to charge my laptop, tablet, or phone. They only cost a few bucks on eBay, and despite what you may see some brand name purists say, the generic bluetooth ones work fine.

I lost two name brand serial readers from "mysterious" circumstances (i.e., ground potential difference), at over $30/ea. I've only replaced my cheap bluetooth OBDII reader when I misplaced it. Since I spent about $7 on it, that didn't hurt as much. If it fell under a friend's car seat, I won't care if they keep it.

If you read up on the ELM327 chip , you'll see that it uses 2, 3, or 4 pins from the OBD connector for data. The bluetooth ones also use 2 more pins for power. (block diagram, page 1)

That also gives you all the information you need, if you want to code your own interface (like you would with an Arduino or Raspberry Pi.

Just to answer everything including the original post...
His remote start, door lock, etc, may be possible on some CAN bus vehicles. That's not an OBDII thing. It may be best to do those functions with good old fashion relays. I just finished decomputerizing a 1999 truck (EFI to carb conversion). It's amazing how many miles of wires are no longer necessary, and I still have all the gauges working. :) Actually, they work better than before, which is interesting. Gauges that were jumpy for no good reason are now stable and accurate. I guess there were more than mechanical issues.

Comment Wikipedia the vector (Score 1) 61

Like others I found the headline confusing. I read it as "Researchers are predicting the use of Wikipedia as a vector for the spread of disease". This may mean that:

  • Disinformation and ignorance are diseases.
  • Memes and computer viruses are diseases.
  • Wilipedia contains information that leads to depression.
  • Instructions on Wikipedia lead to substance abuse.
  • This is getting entertaining, fill in your own reason here.

Comment Re:First step is to collect data. (Score 1) 405

We recently put servers up on a new circuit. One of them was a mail server. It immediately refused by Yahoo for the same reasons. I tried everything conceivable to fix it, and nothing helped. That IP wasn't listed anywhere as being blocked, but it was.

We needed a second block of IPs, because we simply ran out of space in the first rather quickly (we were migrating a lot of servers). I switched the primary IP on the machine from the first block to the second, and suddenly those refused emails went through fine.

So, it may be a matter of changing your IPs. Another solution may be to put up a smart host somewhere, and relay all your outgoing mail through it. Doing that, when a provider decides to block it, you can just switch to another smart host rather painlessly.

In sendmail, the .mc file would have this line:

define(`SMART_HOST', `relay.example.com')

In sendmail.conf (if you like to do it manually"

# "Smart" relay host (may be null)

DS relay.example.com

On your relay server, you'd just need to make sure that the IP of your real mail server is authorized to relay through the relay server.

Comment Re:These idiots are going to ruin it for everyone (Score 3, Insightful) 132

At the speeds commercial aircraft are moving, yes, I could see a pilot mistaking a bird soaring for a RC airplane.

I was in a Cessna, in the pattern to land, I had just a couple seconds to avoid a buzzard. That was, nothing visible to "what's that?" to "oh shit!". I banked hard hard to miss it. The others in the plane were a bit freaked, and happy at the same time. They didn't realize what was happening, but the one who saw the bird barely miss the windshield was very happy I did it. It would have hit his side. That roughly a 5 pound bird with a 65 inch wingspan. That'd be a pretty big drone.

Here is a video of another pilot with a similar incident, except he didn't even have time to evade. He was going a bit faster than I was.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=--XhLJMzRB4

Commercial aircraft are moving much faster, and the pilots are busy doing pesky things like preparing to land. Seeing a bird or drone is nothing more than a glance and a "I saw something".

You can find lots of bird strike videos on YouTube.

With the number of birds (animal kind) in the air versus the number of RC aircraft and drones, statistically I'd say most sightings were birds.

Comment Re:Typical!! (Score 1) 271

TV magic doesn't work the same as the real world.

At one job, I was tasked with coordinating the installation of that kind of unit in our fleet vehicles. It wasn't a secret that we were installing them, but we had to install them so they weren't in the way. We were using the "GE Security NavLogix".

The control box was generally zip tied to or near the steering column. It had a combined GPS receiver and cell antenna. The GPS receiver puck was put on the dash, usually in the front left corner. That let us avoid putting extra holes in the body and/or introducing leaks.

New drivers had no problem identifying and defeating them. "Defeating" was usually "accidentally" putting a foil bag over the GPS puck. That way they couldn't get in trouble for speeding.

If a vehicle wasn't tracking properly, half the time it was the control unit failed. The rest was the driver defeating it. We couldn't really tell if an intermittent failure was intentional or not, except when tech came in with foil still over the puck. I didn't really care. I'd just tell the driver "move the foil before someone sees it." We had enough units that were flaky, we couldn't tell which was which.

Comment Re:Typical!! (Score 1) 271

If you work on your own cars (and friend's cars), then an out of place device is pretty obvious. I can tell you the function of every part. If there was some mystery part, it would definitely get my attention. Trackers require visibility of the sky, and power.

If you want to know how weak GPS can be, play Ingress for a while. My phone mounted up on the dash always has a good lock. The phone of a passenger holding it in their hand frequently loses it's GPS data, or it's not accurate enough to play. Passengers riding in the middle of the vehicle can have a really hard time playing. We've all learned the tricks, like waving our phone by the window to (hopefully) get a location.

A device behind the glove box may be a valid receiver, and may get data service to upload telemetry data. It will probably never get GPS data.

Comment Re:subscription?? (Score 1) 98

Ya.. I never get the hype, or the demands. People are willing to spend lots of money, and even more time, arguing about what thing you can write a letter with is better.

It's not like that's a growing technology. It puts letters on a page, sometimes with some graphics. I'd like to introduce them to Mr. Johannes Gensfleisch zur Laden zum Gutenberg. He had some ideas in that area.

Comment Re:Not a good week... (Score 1) 445

One of the definitions I found was:

One who makes great sacrifices or suffers much in order to further a belief, cause, or principle.

I am sure that fits. While SpaceShip II is mainly intended for a non-exploration purpose, the program has resulted in some significant advances in rocketry and White Knight II has significant non-tourism use. These pilots have been involved in other space efforts, I remember the one who was injured from the Rotary Rocket test flights. There are lots of safer ways for these folks to make as much money as a test pilot is paid. They do what they do to advance our progress in aeronautics and space.

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