My friend, let's call him Futeroot, had bought an R4 card for his DS after someone stole about a dozen of his legitimately bought games (Probably double that $220 value). Not wanting to repurchase all those games again and with no new decent games out, the DS unit got shelved and forgotten. Then one day a friend of Futeroot's told him about the R4 card and Futeroot thought 'Great! Now I can play Mario Kart again and not have to pay twice!'
The DS got dusted off, and later a shiny new DS was purchased, and despite the availability of thousands of games for free, several games were purchased in this revival (New Mario Bros, Zelda, Guitar Hero, etc... easily over the $220 value)
In the end you could say that the piracy of some of those games created a positive value of several hundred dollars, but if you were to look at the files downloaded, you would conclude that piracy in this case created a loss of at least $10,000. That's a pretty big discrepancy.
Now, this is a single case in millions of different cases, but it illustrates that the situation is far more complex then a simple 'lets look at the download numbers and multiply' scenario. In this case there are a few things worth pointing out:
-Futeroot couldn't dream of affording the $10,000 worth of games, so in no way, shape or form should that be considered lost sales.
-When files were downloaded they were downloaded in bulk for two main reasons
1) It is easier to download a big torrent with multiple games than having to track down and find individual game files and
2) There are a lot more seeders for torrents that contain multiple games than ones for individual games. As a result a couple hundred games might be downloaded when only a dozen or two are even wanted. Sorry EA, Futeroot didn't want a copy of MySims, but keep dreaming.
-Additionally, while engaged in this DS revival, Futeroot had convinced 3 people directly to get DSes of their own, who each went out and bought games for their new DSes.