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Comment Fallacies (Score 5, Insightful) 86

Carl Sagan's adage that "extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence" is not a "logical fallacy". It is better thought of as a statement about (Bayesian) inference.

For example, supposing that I have an a priori belief that the probability of life on Mars is one in a million. Loeb finds a rock that he claims has a 99% chance of being made by a Martian and and a 1% chance of being made here on Earth. I would update my belief to one in ten thousand, which is still a long way from being persuaded.

A better example of a logical fallacy is 'They don't seek the evidence and they argue, "Well, we don't have any evidence...."', which misrepresents his opponent's position and is a example of the straw man fallacy.

Comment Thermodynamics (Score 1) 54

A system to exploit the effect needs to sustain an electrochemical potential difference to drive the flow of molecules through the holes. This electrochemical potential difference might be generated by a temperature / pressure / density gradient but maintaining it as the molecules pass through the membrane takes heat or work. This will equal or exceed the electrical power that can be extracted (i.e. the emf generated by the device multiplies by rate of charge separation.) In short, if you invent a perpetual motion machine it isn't going to work in practice.

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