One thing is for certain: The pendulum will swing too far and some companies that pushed it too far will be forced to backtrack a bit.

What is not clear is what "too far" is. Is 5 days too far? Probably. 4 days? Maybe. My guess is that 3 days is where things reach an equilibrium after they overshoot. Or it will be 4 days but they look the other way if you only come in 3 (because N-1 is what many end up doing anyway after holidays, PTO, sick days, appointments, etc.). Maybe it will be 4 days but the concession is a 4 day work week in some industries.

What will determine the extent of where it settles will be how broadly hybrid becomes entrenched. If it gets to 95% of mid and large sized companies and most startups then 3 days at least will win. At least, most workers will be forced to accept it even if that means eating the commute costs. Especially if the economy rolls over and there is a recession.

1 day every 2 weeks is "full remote" with occasional meetings and that is the least likely to happen.

Fortune or someone similar has putting out a "Return to Office is Dead" article every 6 months or so. A couple of more iterations should do it.

I suspect if all those companies knew you were doing this, you would be terminated from most of them.

There is a good reason for requiring physical presence on a regular basis. It prevents this kind of fraud.

Yes. Mentoring juniors is part of your job (or should be). That mentoring is best done fully in person at first and after a bit, partially in person.

We put all the new grad engineers and interns fully in the office. 5 day contracts. They need extended, multi-year mentoring. At least, most of them. Once probation is done they can do a bit of hybrid. That of course requires the more senior devs to be in 2-3 days a week or even more. The devs only have 2 day mandates but those mentoring are expected to be in more than that. Our management is mostly in 4-5 days/wk.

Agreed. Go 3 day hybrid after full remote and moral will take a hit for 1/3 of your workforce. 20% with think about looking around for full remote and 10% actually will be serious. Those that try will find there are few full remote positions that are not massively oversubscribed with competition from qualified people. Also that other companies in the same industry have also put on hybrid or are likely about to. 5% might leave if you go hard core and actually try for 100% compliance with hybrid.

Most likely moral for that 1/3 will improve somewhat over time. It comes down to how how serious they are about quitting and how easy it is for them to move somewhere full remote. A few will feel burning resentment and leave at the first opportunity but that might amount to increasing voluntary attrition by a couple of percent.

Even if productivity difference are a wash either way, it is a win for companies. Especially if they productivity is neutral even with moral in the tank for half the workforce.

The company gets the intangible benefits of mentoring and training junior staff and easier manageability of the workforce and loses nothing. As long as its competitors also put on similar hybrid arrangements and also enforce them.

One survey says 90% of CEOs want full RTO by 2026. Another says they are not prioritizing full RTO in 2024 and are instead working on 2/3 day hybrid compliance.

These are not incompatible goals. Once they get most people at most mid to large sized companies back in part time, they can prioritize ratcheting up if job market conditions allow to suit their long term RTO goals.

What if those employers willing to offer full remote work account for only 10-15% of all positions, at all levels (entry to management)? That is my guess as to where we end up in a year or so.

Employers will still have ample selection. Even from those who desire full remote and can’t find such a position. Most of your staff is not going to be top tier and half of those that are will still be willing to work hybrid.

Granted, the pendulum might swing too far and employers might have to back off a bit, but not by much. As time passes, most will get used to going in part of the week and things will come to an equilibrium. Perhaps as VR tech improves remote work will become as productive across teams. Manageability of those remote teams as well. Management burnout is a driver behind the office push. Not everyone is a self motivated top performer and managing weaker team memebers remotely is burning out some managers I know.

The juniors appear to desire the in-person experience. I certainly would want it.They are also the ones socializing after work playing volleyball or pickleball. We set up an indoor pickleball court a a foyer area for them.

The biggest WFH cheerleaders are:
1) intermediate devs with young families who want extreme time flexibility.
2) senior devs who already have a good network and experience

It is 2) that is the toughest nut for management to crack. They have the hardest to replace design skillsets. A decent fraction are financially independent and near retirement. Even if every competitor is also running hybrid, you could lose them to retirement if you push them. At the least, they might go earlier.

The graveyard is full of irreplaceable people, and people who believe themselves to be so.

I do not believe that most employers will accept full remote. It is just not going to happen. They will demand a couple of days at least. Even if that means not getting the talent they want. Chasing talent to get short term gains will cause your company to rot out from the inside over time, IMHO. I know many here don’t give a damn about whether a company endures but the board and top management’s job is exactly this at every company. The only proven means of grooming management, mentoring and training new devs, etc. is via regular, in person interaction.it will take decade for hybrid before that changes. Enough companies believe that and have pressures to make it happen, so it will.

At my tech outfit, they got 40% of staff to come in 2 days/wk just by asking. It never got above 60% even after a couple of months of free food and nudging. People were also working 10-3 in the office and working the rest at home. It took a mandate early in 2023 to get it to 90% and another 6 months of arm twisting to get it to mid 90s. Several senior area experts are still holdouts though. A few with legit medical reasons. They gave up on making the holdouts come in.

They punted on the plan to move to 3 days mid 2023. Management wants 3 days though and I expect they to ratchet up to that in 2024. It might take until Oct to achieve it, just like last year.

My division is signing new grads, new hires, and interns with full 5 day in the office contracts. The juniors need an extended period of mentoring, not just on boarding. That is provided by senior devs who are in 2-3 days a week. Some more. The new hires get hybrid once they are out of probation, I assume.

Almost no hires are full 100% remote. The only one I am aware of is a special case.

With full remote positions drying up and massive competition for the few remaining, most people won’t have any choice but to work hybrid.

There won’t be anyplace else to go.

The list of mid and large sized companies moving to 2 and 3 day/wk hybrid models is growing by the week. Rush hour traffic is back Tue-Thur and the parking lots are decently full in Ottawa’s high tech park in suburban Kanata. After being empty up until 6 months ago. Full remote is dying for many.

Change is still happening. Federal civil servants are being reeled in after a 2 day mandate was imposed earlier in 2023. It is likely they will move to a 3 day mandate later in 2024.

Here is Toronto’s office occupancy chart: https://srraresearch.org/covid/category/Occupancy+Index
Slow and steady movement up. No signs of it maxing out.

The pendulum is still winging back and don’t believe the RTO is dead clickbait.