PS3 Japanese Estimates Down, No 360 Price Drop

There are unhappy gamers on a couple sides of the console wars today. IGN is reporting that Japan's allotment of 100,000 PS3 units will actually be more like 80,000. From that article: "The lack of digits in that number is even more staggering when you consider that the PS2 sold out of nearly a million units when it launched back in March of 2000. Having lived through a few weeks of attempting to obtain a PS3 pre-order, we're not too surprised by the lowered shipping numbers. Allocations disappeared quickly at online retailers that were brave enough to start pre-order programs. The online arm of media retailer Tsutaya ran out of units in 6 minutes according to Nikkei (it felt more like 1 minute to us)." Meanwhile, the Seattle PI reports that Microsoft has once again denied the possibility of a 360 price drop any time soon.

Of course..

[CaseM]

I always get a chuckle at these denials and the fact that they're even reported as news. Of course Microsoft is going to deny a price drop (even if it's coming), just the way Nintendo denied they were remaking the DS...announcing a price drop would kill current sales of the 360's as everyone would hold out until the price drop actually occurred.

Re:Sony just keeps getting kicked.... by themselve

[MeanderingMind]

For all that rant, there is a good point to consider in there. Namely, what if there are defective PS3s?

Microsoft got a good lashing last year when a fair number of their consoles had issues. Not a very significant number, but enough that word got around the net fast. You can argue that perhaps we were looking for reasons for the 360 to fail, but you can make that same argument now for the PS3.

If the launch is anything short of perfect, we're going to hear about it. Seeing as how only the hardcore, internet competent gamers will have managed to snag one of these at launch it's only going to take one failure out of 480k systems for there to be a huge todo about it.

If there's only one failure, it'll be FUD. One in 480k is pretty good. However, people will assume there are more failures and the FUD will spread and it will be generally bad for Sony until it get cleared up.

However, if there are a much more sizable number of failures the damage that could be done to Sony's brand is enormous. If they can't launch a year after Microsoft without repeating all of the same mistakes (low launch numbers, faulty systems and not that many interesting games) it does not reflect well on them. That isn't the kind of launch a market leader should have.

Honestly, I'm not sure if Sony can "win" when it comes to this launch. I suspect that barring a miracle we'll be bombarded with negative press, some true and a good amount of FUD, against Sony. The hardcore gamers are the ones in control of the internet media, and they are also largely the ones pissed off at Sony (sometimes to a shocking degree of irrationality). Those who were unable to, or unwililng to, get a PS3 will pounce instantly on any mistake and blow it out of proportion.

I do not envy Sony's position.

Maths

[MeanderingMind]

Japanese Allotment: 80k
American Allotment: 400k

Population of Japan: 127.42 million
Previous Japanese Market Volume: 30.31 million (Dreamcast + Gamecube + PS2 in Japan)
Number of PS3s per person: 1 per 1593
Number of PS3s per gamer: 1 per 379
Potential Market Share at Launch: 0.26% (Allotment / Previous Volume)

Population of America: 300.00 million
Previous American Market Volume: 70.8 million (Xbox + Gamecube + PS2)
Number of PS3s per person: 1 per 750
Number of PS3s per gamer: 1 per 177
Potential Market Share at Launch: 0.56%

Combined Potential Market Share: 0.47% (480k) [5.66% relative Market Share]
Current 360 Market Share: 5.93% (6 million) [70.07% relative Market Share]
Potential Wii Launch Market Share: 1.98% (2 million) [23.59% relative Market Share]

Projected March 07 Market Share: 5.93% (6 million) [27.28% relative Market Share]
360 March 07 Market Share: 9.89% (10 million) [45.46% relative Market Share]
Wii March 07 Market Share: 5.93% (6 million) [27.28% relative Market Share]

Re:Maths

[MeanderingMind]

I used the official company goals/projections. Unofficially Nintendo may have 6 million availible by January, and Sony may fall short of 6 million in March. It seemed unobjective to factor such things in.

6 million for Nintendo is not bad at all, seeing as how the Xbox 360 has been out for almost a year now and has only recently crossed the 6 million mark. The rate at which they produce new consoles in their projections is quite steady and reasonable.

What concerns me are the PS3 forecasts. If taken in two month segments, Sony is practically calling for their production to double or triple itself twice over (.5 + 1.5 + 4.5 ~ 6). Given their continuing supply problems, I'm not certain of how reasonable their 6 million March 07 projection is. If they can manage to succeed in that goal it will be a good thing for them, but I remain skeptical.