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Science

Journal n54's Journal: Big flaw in global warming analysis 8

Ah... rejected again. Whatever problems the editors (or was it just that one bad one again?) had with this one here it is for all to see, carbon copied below.

MIT Technology Review reports that a prime piece of evidence linking human activity to climate change turns out to be an artifact of poor mathematics here.

From their article (note that "hockey stick" refers to the graph segment shaped like one and used as evidence for global warming):
"Canadian scientists Stephen McIntyre and Ross McKitrick have uncovered a fundamental mathematical flaw in the computer program that was used to produce the hockey stick. In his original publications of the stick, Mann purported to use a standard method known as principal component analysis, or PCA, to find the dominant features in a set of more than 70 different climate records.

But it wasn't so. McIntyre and McKitrick obtained part of the program that Mann used, and they found serious problems. Not only does the program not do conventional PCA, but it handles data normalization in a way that can only be described as mistaken."

The details of McIntyre and McKitrick can be found here

So is this just the last example of science being corrupted by large groups blindly believing in science as a religion? How about DU and radiation? In each case it seems to be mostly the same groups who get caught with their trousers down...
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Big flaw in global warming analysis

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  • by KilobyteKnight ( 91023 ) <bjm@midso u t h . r r .com> on Saturday October 16, 2004 @12:21PM (#10544727) Homepage
    It probably got rejected because it wasn't conspiriatorial enough. Had you blamed one political party or the other for hiding or misrepresenting the data, it would have been front page news.

    There are many here who's opinions are their faith.
    • I suspect the news might have offended an editors worldview, that it's not welcomed to "critisize" the "truth" on some topics...

      Next time I'll try blaming it on the freemasons ;) j/k

      I won't do that, better not to get the story accepted, and I've found that "self-publicising" the rejected stories as journal posts works to a certain degree. Maybe over time someone will figure out an even better idea :)
  • i myself feel global warming might bring about just a superficial climate change. human activities can change only limited matters on environment. i know its a little bit extreme conclusion. but if i have to choose, i chose this standpoint.
    • I'm not at all sure myself, and we still know so little about the details of our planet (and especially long term climate behaviour, we have a lot of data but that's just about it, the causes and interconnections aren't obvious). Because of this I think both your opinion and numerous others can be correct (all along the scale from "earth selfadjusts and nothing too bad happens" to "earth becoming like mars and all life disappears" or a new ice age), probably it's somewhere in the middle. A lot more research
  • that Richard Muller is a quack? David Appell over on quark soup [davidappell.com] has a few things to say about Muller and his track record.

    Keep in mind that the MIT Technology Review is a private organization with no peer review. When a science reporter bases some analysis on a paper rejected by Nature, and has yet to be received elsewhere, I seriously doubt the veracity of the claims made.
    • Your point about MIT Tech Rev is a very good one, however I know that peer reviewed journals aren't necessarily in themselves somehting one should intrinsically trust: they also do "mistakes" and are very conservative towards ideas that are not (yet) widely held. What I'm trying to say (and I'm not implying that this or the opposite would be your opinion) is that trusting a peer reviewed journal as totally objective and impartial can be just as bad as doing the same regarding for example MIT Tech Rev. Many

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