daveo0331's Journal: Traffic safety in blue and red states

Based on the results of the 2000 election,  who are the better drivers -- Republicans or Democrats?

State          Population  Traffic Per 100k
                           Deaths  Population
Wyoming              500,890 165   33 Bush
Mississippi        2,883,837 871   30 Bush
Montana              912,679 262   29 Bush
South Dakota         763,827 203   27 Bush
New Mexico         1,871,064 439   23 Gore (barely)
South Carolina     4,149,481 968   23 Bush
Arkansas           2,726,380 627   23 Bush
Kentucky           4,115,611 928   23 Bush
Alabama            4,504,022 1,001 22 Bush
West Virginia      1,799,004 394   22 Bush
Missouri           5,706,964 1,232 22 Bush
Idaho              1,362,099 293   22 Bush
Tennessee          5,845,291 1,193 20 Bush
Arizona            5,601,262 1,120 20 Bush
Louisiana          4,488,721 894   20 Bush
Oklahoma           3,512,851 668   19 Bush
Florida           17,037,934 3,169 19 Bush?
Georgia            8,726,467 1,603 18 Bush
North Carolina     8,440,515 1,531 18 Bush

Delaware             817,956 142   17 Gore
Kansas             2,728,091 471   17 Bush
Nebraska           1,737,143 293   17 Bush
North Dakota         630,547 105   17 Bush
Texas             22,192,367 3,675 17 Bush
Nevada             2,251,372 368   16 Bush
Maine              1,303,149 207   16 Gore
Wisconsin          5,475,649 848   15 Gore
Iowa               2,941,398 441   15 Gore
Alaska               651,277 95    15 Bush
Oregon             3,566,010 512   14 Gore
Colorado           4,597,777 632   14 Bush
Indiana            6,193,993 834   13 Bush
Utah               2,353,183 309   13 Bush
Minnesota          5,064,271 657   13 Gore
Virginia           7,389,108 943   13 Bush

Pennsylvania      12,359,106 1,577 13 Gore
Michigan          10,100,223 1,283 13 Gore
California        35,669,088 4,215 12 Gore
District of Columbia 570,383 67    12 Gore
Maryland           5,529,981 649   12 Gore
Illinois          12,681,208 1,453 11 Gore
Ohio              11,451,544 1,277 11 Bush (now a swing state)
Vermont              620,043 69    11 Gore
Hawaii             1,259,725 135   11 Gore
New Hampshire      1,292,509 127   10 Bush (barely)
Washington         6,146,717 600   10 Gore
Rhode Island       1,079,239 104   10 Gore
New Jersey         8,668,499 747    9 Gore
Connecticut        3,484,919 294    8 Gore
New York          19,238,007 1,491  8 Gore
Massachusetts      6,462,780 462    7 Gore

haha

[js7a]

funny.

Re:haha

[ari_j]

Fewer people per capita drive in high-population areas, such as those that Gore dominated in the 2000 election. This is cute and slightly humorous, but hardly evidence of a causal relationship.

Correlation != Causality

[gcaseye6677]

This is perhaps the best example I've ever seen of someone using statistics to prove a point in a study with a predetermined outcome.

I wish more people understood this

[daveo0331]

Part of why I posted this is to illustrate how you can use statistics to prove just about anything (I also posted it because I couldn't resist the opportunity to make fun of Republicans). Anytime you see a "study" like this that "proves" that one thing causes another, you should immediately be skeptical, especially if the person presenting the study has an agenda. Bonus points for anyone who can explain the real reason why Bush states have higher traffic fatality rates (hint: it's not just totally random

Re:I wish more people understood this

[Spunk]

Bravo.

Re:I wish more people understood this

[gcaseye6677]

OK, I give up. What is the real reason why Bush (I assume this means predominately Republican) states have higher traffic fatality rates? More SUVs, hurrying soccer moms, Porsche drivers?

Re:I wish more people understood this

[daveo0331]

This article [cnn.com] is where I got the idea to do this journal entry, and it should give you some idea as to why this is the case.

Basically, rural states tend to be Republican and more urban, densely populated states tend to be Democrat. For many reasons, rural areas have more traffic deaths:

Two lane highways are more dangerous than interstates because of head-on collisions.

People drive more in rural states because things are farther apart.

People don't wear seat belts as much in rural areas (#1 Wyoming has n