QuackQuack's Journal: Worried about losing your job overseas?

Worried about your job going overseas, and ending up as a burger flipper despite having a CS degree?

Much has been made in the media over the past year about hi-tech jobs being shipped overseas to workers making a fraction of what their US counterparts do.

Of course coming out of a long labor slump, with unemployment at 9-year highs, these stories resonate easily. Jobs were being sent overseas in 1998 and 1999 too, but you didn't see it reported because jobs were so plentiful here then, that nobody cared.

What doesn't get reported much is the coming labor shortage caused by a shift in demographics... Baby boomers will start retiring in large numbers, and there just aren't enough workers to replace them.

I've seen this reported in a few places, but Business 2.0 has just run a story on it called The Coming Job Boom. This is the best one I've seen yet, with charts showing job growth vs. labor force size, etc.

To summarize this article.

1. A labor crunch is guaranteed even if the US only experiences a meager 3% annual GDP growth rate. (Most recent reading was 3.1% BTW)
2. The effect of Boomers retiring later, more H1Bs, workforce automation, and overseas outsourcing won't be enough to negate the US labor crunch, article explains why on each point.
3. Most of the fastest growing professions will be in tech. I know this may seem hard to believe now, but here is a quote from the article: ...But Sargent, an authority on economic measurement, defends the BLS numbers, calling them the "closest you get to absolute objectivity." To assume that the [tech] sector's current weakness is permanent makes no more sense than believing in 1999 that the gravy train would never end. Several studies show that where the bureau [BLS] has erred, it has traditionally underestimated demand for tech.
4. We should start seeing the first signs of this crunch in 2005.
5. Most companies aren't doing enough to prepare for the crunch. They should be working on key employee retention now. Instead, many are taking advantage of the labor market weakness, cutting benefits, raises, perks, hiring people for less than the going rate.
6. Analysts like Forrester and Gartner are overstating the number of jobs that will be outsourced to India and elsewhere. The article even suggests that Forrester may be trying to drum up business for its own outsourcing consultancy business.

The next time you see a doom-and-gloom article about tech jobs going overseas, this is a good article to refer to keep a sense of balance and optimism.