algebraist's Journal: Did the Iraqi regime believe what they said 3rd April 2003?

With the sudden doubletake today from the Iraqi regime, whether or not it was actually delivered by Saddam Hussein, admitting that Coalition forces and Americans were at the Baghdad Airport, however qualified the admission, I wonder if the Iraqi regime actually believed what had been said through yesterday. That was, in short, that Coalition forces were bogged down and had not advanced anywhere and that the Iraqi defenders were winning.

Most, including me, thought this was simply propaganda on the part of the Iraqi leadership, directed primarily towards their own people and that the reports were simply duplicity. But suppose it wasn't.

Suppose that, because of the fear and autocratic rule imposed upon the country and tightened after invasion -- to the point of using threats to kill family and murdering critics -- noone in the lower ranks is willing to give Saddam bad news. For if they do, that means they have failed in their charge and the leadership has frequently used extreme measures to deal with failure, including measures applied to the Iraqi Olympic team. Suppose, then, the news fed to the regime was strongly edited, censored by the very fear the regime used to control Iraq, and the leadership believed the news.

This would be most ironic, and a strong comment on the importance of hearing criticism in any enterprise. For it is always easier to prove a fact wrong than prove it right.