chongo's Journal: 2003-EG16 asteroid update for 2003-03-13 21:00 UTC

The 2003-EG16 asteroid had the top position in the current impact risks , but lost to to a new asteroid: 2003-EE16. A writeup of the 2003-EE16 asteroid should appear in this journal soon.

The 50 New observations over 4.6 days is a bit short to create an extremely accurate model.

Based on the new observations, we calculate the following information for 2003-EG16:

• Diameter: 579m (up from 544m)
• Mass: 2.6e11 kg (up from 2.2e11 kg)
• Impact speed (only IF it hits): 23.70 km/s (up from 23.53 km/s)
• Potential impact energy (only IF it hits): 18,000 Megatons (up from 14,000 Megatons)
• Torino impact hazard scale : 0 (no change)
• cumulative Palermo Scale : -2.41 (up from -2.42)
• close Earth approach paths in next 100 yrs: 22 (down from 96)
• Earth impact odds in the next 100 yrs: 1 in 714,000 (up from 1 in 769,000)

Based on the estimated size and mass: IF 2003-EG16 were to hit the Earth on land, its impact would result in sub-continent scale devastation. IF 2003-EG16 were to hit the Earth in the ocean, it would create a tsunami the size and speed of which have not been seen in recorded history. Such a tsunami would would inflict total devastation along adjoining coastlines and in some cases spread destruction far inland.

The impact speed, IF 2003-EG16 hits the earth remains on the higher end of the typical asteroid approach speed.

The odds of 2003-EG16 impacting Earth means that there is a 99.99986% chance the asteroid will miss the Earth.

We would not be surprised to see additional observations modify the orbit model and reduce the hazard level of this asteroid sometime in the future.