M$'s ability to monetize the developing world should be considered a failure. Users in China were upset to learn the WGA Black Screen was part of M$'s Anti-Pirate Day festivities. At least one lawsuit has been filed, calling WGA criminal hacking and invasion of privacy. From China.org:
of 574,923 participants, 73.33 percent said they were using pirate versions of XP, 51.58 percent said they intend to continue using pirate versions, and 32.87 percent said they will ignore Microsoft's "black screen" campaign. Only 15.55 percent said they intend to buy an authorized version. 77.23 percent said they oppose Microsoft's action.
... Some said they would turn to Non-Microsoft replacements, such as the LINUX system or Kingsoft's WPS Office if Microsoft's new policy takes effect.
[Many] point out that the WGA will be cracked, just like all the most complicated Windows operating systems have been in the past.
... pure black wallpapers have suddenly become very fashionable.
Just wait till that 15% finds out how much Windows really costs.
Only a year ago, the Wintel press was filled with optimism and thoughts of vast wealth pouring out of China and the developing world. There were stories of Bill Gates hero worship and the victory of Windows over GNU/Linux in China. Fortune magazine had actually called it, the conquest of China and talked about Bill Gates throwing out his usual business model. Nothing was different and nothing will change.
M$'s survival is at stake and their timing could not have been worse. With the US economy going into a deep recession, China has little to fear from a US trade embargo and can do whatever it likes with its computers. Other countries on the anti-piracy list, given the same treatment will have the same kind of reaction. The developing world is also moving towards software freedom. M$ has two choices, they can liberate their software or lose market share.