Comment Re:more likely from Kenya than Canada (Score 2) 254
Kenya or Ethiopia. Every human being to ever run less than 2:05 is from one of those countries.
Not true. Ryan Hall (a USian) ran 2:04:58. Even though we got halfway there in the last 17 years, it's important to consider that there has been a massive movement of focus from 10k to the marathon for many athletes during that time due to increased money only in the marathon, and in 1998 the marathon record was slightly soft compared with the track events. Also let's not forget that the rate of improvement will slow down as times get faster, otherwise we'll run the race in zero seconds somewhere before the year 3000. The most important race determining when a sub-2 happens is that between the drug cheats and the drug testers. Without being able to predict that gap, it will be tough to guess when sub-2 occurs. Most records currently happen in Berlin, but a straighter course would help, as would one that exploits the allowed elevation drop of 42m. As a 45 year old runner, I'm optimistic of seeing a sub-2 in my lifetime.