The plot of estimated range vs. miles traveled is particularly interesting... if the range estimation was accurate, the slope while driving should be -1. However, it's pretty consistently around -1.3, with the exception of the section between about 400 and 475 miles (note that the x and y axis scales aren't the same, so you can't just eyeball the line or measure the pixels). I.e., an estimate of 130 miles only gets you about 100 miles of actual driving. Which Broder also noted in his original article: "At 68 miles since recharging, the range had dropped by 85 miles." Why doesn't the estimate adapt to driving conditions and style? In my gas-powered car, the estimated range remaining does seem to take into account the current running average mpg.
In any case, I'm not really interested in what happens after the Milford supercharge (at ~320 miles): he should've charged to completion there, or charged longer at Norwich. The Delaware to Milford supercharge is the portion that's interesting to me. Musk claims that Broder drove the car hard during that section, but I'm not seeing it in the logs. He was going about 60mph during most of that (Musk quibbles that Broder said he set the cruise at 54mph--whatever; neither 54 or 60 are driving the car hard). The slope of the estimated range vs. actual mileage for that section is about -1.25. The distance between the Delaware and Milford stations is 200 (or 202) miles. The estimated range after a 90% charge at Delaware is 242 miles. So factoring in the inaccuracy, an estimated 242 miles translates to an actual 193 miles--not quite enough to reach the destination. And that's while driving below the speed limit.