As it stands now, it's doubtful that the Republicans will win the next election. Polls are showing between 60% and 75% of the population blame the Republicans for the current budget crisis. The polite phrasing of one poll is "...74% of Americans dissaprove of the way the congressional Republicans have handled the standoff..." While people might be unhappy with Obama's performance, there is a 15 to 20 point spread between them; so, if there was an election next month the Democrats would win. There was a somewhat surprising poll last week that showed that >60% of Americans would choose to replace their Congressional representative in the next election. If this continues, the balance of power in the House may shift in 2014. Assuming the Tea Party membership of the Republican party continues it's obstructionist behavior and the Democratic party maintains it's stance, then in 2016 a new Democratic president will likely be elected.
This, of course, is just my humble opinion.
In seeking the unattainable, simplicity only gets in the way. -- Epigrams in Programming, ACM SIGPLAN Sept. 1982