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Submission + - Ecosystem collapses may occur much sooner than expected (phys.org)

An anonymous reader writes: An article in Nature Sustainability suggests that models may have underestimated the impact of warming on ecosystems. Two main reasons for this are the difficulty in accounting for variability and combining climate change with other pressure factors: for instance, pollution, excessive exploitation of species, deforestation due to increased demographics growth and meat consumption, ecosystem fragmentation, also harm wildlife.

Climate models operate under constant non-climatic pressures and do not consider the combined effects of a more hostile climate and increasing pressures. The models also fail to account for the decreasing resilience due to declining resource availability like fossil fuels.

Climate averages are typically calculated over a 30-year period, but extreme events can significantly affect ecosystems even if they fall within the overall margin of error. It is important to consider variability and the frequency of extreme deviations from the average. The climate system is becoming increasingly volatile, as observed in recent years.

In the linked article, researchers have studied the impact of introducing more volatility (noise) into climate simulations. The result suggests that ecosystem collapse could occur 80% earlier than anticipated by less volatile models, indicating that the impacts described by the IPCC Working Group II may greatly underestimate the consequences.

Comment Paid services may be the answer (Score 1) 185

If the service is free of charge, Google isn't going to employ human technical support staff to validate people's identity and make a best-guess attempt to restore locked accounts to their rightful owners. That's just too expensive.

If you pay for the service, even if it's only a couple of dollars a month, then you can always be identified as the account holder, just by tracing it back through your bank account (and identifying bank customers is a well known, if not completely solved, problem). Moreover if you're paying then you will have a human "account manager" whose job it is to sort out this stuff.

That's why for important things I prefer to use a paid service. That said, I haven't put the theory to the test - like if I lost access to my current email address and I had to ask for the password to be reset just on the basis of being the person paying for the account. There still might not be a clueful helpdesk, if 99% of accounts are free ones.

Comment Just use the web app versions anyway (Score 1) 139

I use Outlook and Teams at work but I've found the web versions to be faster. I just open outlook.office.com and teams.microsoft.com in Firefox. Outlook in particular responds faster (for me) than the desktop app -- though it' still pretty sluggish. Teams in the browser is about the same experience as the desktop version (which is currently an Electron app anyway), but at least you only have one browser engine running, saving a few hundred megs of memory.

So obviously, links also open in Firefox. One thing I haven't managed to fix is the obnoxious "safelinks" URI munging. There are Greasemonkey scripts for that but Microsoft has changed the munging slightly over the years so I haven't found (or managed to write) one that works.

Comment Re:With any luck... (Score 1) 126

From the Bots of New York:

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Comment Re:Ugh. (Score 2) 159

Unlike the ACM article's author, I'm not offended by the new unreachable notation. It won't bite you unless you explicitly decide to use it. The problem is the implicit undefined behaviour allowing the compiler to do crazy things. In most cases I can kind of see why it's that way, but it needs a strong warning from the compiler that it's about to elide half of your code having decided it can never be reached without undefined behaviour being triggered.

Comment Perhaps checking existing articles instead (Score 1) 100

We know that ChatGPT can make up stuff that vaguely matches its training set. And you could train it on a corpus of peer-reviewed academic papers and newspapers (not including Wikipedia or other websites in the corpus) and it might then be able to write encylopaedia articles. But as Jimmy Wales noted, you'd have to take its output with a very large pinch of salt, and by that point you might as well write the article by hand.

A more fruitful approach, as well as one that's more of a challenge for current technology, would be to ask a machine learning system to find problems with Wikipedia articles. "The claim in the fifth paragraph cites the study [15] as evidence, but the conclusions of that study do not support the claim in the Wikipedia article. This is because the study says... while the article says... "

Once you've got a system that can nitpick articles like this, even if it's unreliable and sometimes gets false positives, it's still a good starting point for a human to go in and check. And if the model has misunderstood, hopefully it would be possible to use these mistakes to correct the model or as additional training data.

Comment Re:Supernova (Score 1) 32

To be fair, having a single snake-like cable connecting all the PCs was a pretty common idea. To us today it seems obviously easier to have individual connections to a central hub or switch, but at the time a common cable was accepted, perhaps to save on the total amount of wiring used. Token Ring also used a single wire, though joined into a loop, and I think there was also Token Bus.

You are right that "transmit, and retry on collision" can never scale. But it is simple and hard to get wrong, as long as everyone is polite enough to wait a little before retrying. I'd say the success of the original Ethernet is an example of "worse is better".

Comment So what's the right angle? (Score 1) 46

I thought that looking moderately downward was the best position for your neck. Hence the advice to keep the top of your screen at eye level. (I don't quite follow that: my screens are all in portrait orientation and the top of each display is slightly above my eyes, but for most of the screen area I'm looking level or downwards.) I guess there's a sweet spot where you are looking downwards, but not too far down?

Comment Missing the point (Score 1) 211

Digital security experts told me that bad guys can use software to easily translate your âoeatâ and âoedotâ into a regular old email address.

Well, duh. It's trivial. But the question is not whether they can, it's whether they do. The evidence, as far as I can tell, is that generally they do not. It's hardly worth it for them as anyone with the moderate level of intelligence needed to obfuscate their email address is too intelligent to respond to spam. The exception would be if some large, popular website started displaying users' email address using an automatically applied obfuscation. But I think sites aren't that stupid - they usually have "click to reveal the address", which requires a new request to the server and rate-limits any harvesting.

Comment Nested virtualization (Score 1) 53

Microsoft does say that there are some limitations when it comes to virtualizing Windows 11 on top of macOS, pointing primarily to features that require nested virtualization to function as not being supported.

And that, I think, is the problem with operating systems like Qubes OS, or indeed Windows 11 itself with its Android and Linux subsystems. The PC cannot be fully virtualized, because the virtual environment cannot itself host VMs.

I have no experience on mainframes but I believe that where virtualization is done properly, it's not like that -- a virtual machine can itself host other VMs, down to an arbitrary depth. Anyone care to correct me?

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