Submission + - Ecosystem collapses may occur much sooner than expected (phys.org)
Climate models operate under constant non-climatic pressures and do not consider the combined effects of a more hostile climate and increasing pressures. The models also fail to account for the decreasing resilience due to declining resource availability like fossil fuels.
Climate averages are typically calculated over a 30-year period, but extreme events can significantly affect ecosystems even if they fall within the overall margin of error. It is important to consider variability and the frequency of extreme deviations from the average. The climate system is becoming increasingly volatile, as observed in recent years.
In the linked article, researchers have studied the impact of introducing more volatility (noise) into climate simulations. The result suggests that ecosystem collapse could occur 80% earlier than anticipated by less volatile models, indicating that the impacts described by the IPCC Working Group II may greatly underestimate the consequences.