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Comment Re:Central tendancy (Score 1) 457

In fact, these people are just abusing statistics to create panic. One way to look at this data is "37% chance in 50 years" the other way to look at it is, what's the time frame for a 99% probability. That is actually vastly more useful information. The reason they didn't report on this is because the time frame is probably somewhere between 1 and 10,000 years.

Comment Re:Central tendancy (Score 1) 457

It's not contrafactual to assess the remarkably broad "37% chance in 50 years" prediction as unhelpful. It's basically no better than a soothe sayer. It was derived using relatively simple nonparametric statistics, and doesn't really help predict at all because we already know the pacific northwest is subject to seismic activity. There's also an off chance of another massive hurricane disaster, volcanic eruptions and massive flooding. Why do I know this? Because even being alive for as less than 30 years I have seen these more than one of these events happen. Yes the big one is coming. Tell me something I don't know.

Comment Central tendancy (Score 1) 457

It's unknown if large geological events like this occur according to any central tendency. It may be that the mean time between large earthquakes is not related to the mean. Ultimately we have no idea, the data is not good enough to say. Saying that an earthquake of magnitude X is likely in Y period of time is basically just a guess at this point.

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