Indeed. Shades of many predicted futures are unfolding before us. What's important is the future that we strive towards.
Television Advertising is an aging enterprise; we can see the wrinkles, hear the joints make disappointed sounds and smell the death in the air. Advertising Production continues to be vibrant and fresh at the forefront, but also dated and tiresome at the rear. Advertising commerce and leadership is even more atrocious; gaudy incentive-based models and over-wrought statistics models that snuff any possible gains from consumer feedback by dissecting them until the results are almost completely irrelevant. It's a most appalling beast.
In the U.K. and around Europe, the model is to provide a block of advertisements at the start of a time-slot, then play the show in its entirety. This is better in two ways; the story is told uninterrupted, and one avoids the gross repetition of ads that bombard us about the most trivial of purchasing opportunities. (see above about the "least of competitive differences" for some good examples) Speaking of repetition, it seems that nowadays it's not uncommon to see the same ad twice in a row. Are they also trying to drive us insane with dejá vu?
So, maybe our new DVR culture could take a page from that get-it-over-with-firstly model. Dish® has taken the extreme stance of, "our technology, our customers, our rules" and they're welcome to pursue that suicidal path. (Talk about biting the hand that feeds you!) Here however, is a possible compromise; use this revolutionary technology to re-structure advertising. (vs. eliminating it)
Here's how that would look: Say you've just recorded the latest Big Bang Theory and are about to watch from disk. The prompt on the screen says, "Would you like to group all ads before watching the show? This will eliminate ads during the program." The magic lies in the grouping; heuristics have determined which ads are duplicate, which are longest and which are shortest, which are local and which are national-feed, etc. It then proceeds to present the ads in rapid-fire fashion (to which we are accustomed) in a specific sorting order, such as national-then-local, or longest-to-shortest, or some other scheme. (configurable, perhaps?) Add to that, when the ads are complete, the DVR announces the beginning of the program with a signature tone and a short pause, which may be skipped if you're sitting right there.
In this way, the DVR finally stops resembling its linear-tape predecessors and truly emerges as an indispensable tool of the Digital Age... and without burning the ecosystem that spawned it. If left unchecked, techniques such as DVR Proofing vis-a-vis storyline-integration advertising, (where you have to watch the ad because it is actually part of the story/episode) contextual advertising and addressable advertising become not only necessary evils, but the norm.
Dr. Sagan was most insightful about one thing above all; the most advertising money is thrown at the least of competitive differences. (e.g., light beer, chewing gum, fast food, automobile dealerships, etc)
The American viewing audience is no longer taken-in by commercials. There's nothing "magic" about TV any more. We know that advertising is meant to deceive, persuade and ultimately to control our consumer buying potential. This is being taught in early education under Social Sciences; ergo, the adults today knew better long before they had a consumer vote. We're not the brightest bulb, but neither are we that easy to fool.
I don't think anyone really views commercials as any form of inspiration or as fostering loyalty to a particular brand... it's all just another form of entertainment.
Let's look at it this way; advertising as entertainment. It's fairly natural, and supported by psychology, that we are drawn towards that which amuses us. Yet, we as a nation are conditioned to focus our attention for roughly ten minutes before taking a "break", vis-a-vis the commercial break. The idea behind that was to brutally interrupt the story in order to hijack that attention into exerting some kind of influence about how we spend our money. We're so conditioned to stop paying attention at regular intervals that it has subsumed our very culture; note that most online videos are no more than 10 minutes, unless of course they are based upon a broadcast program. Ratings for blocks of programming that are only 10 minutes long (slated as a 15-minute program, including promos/ads) are surprisingly popular, despite that the content is neither enriching, nor terribly captivating. Is our tendency to enjoy small "chunks" of storytelling getting the better of us? Do we prefer the format to the substance?
Ask yourself this: Could an epic story-arc, such as Game of Thrones or True Blood, be told in 10-minute episodes? Changing the timing really does change the story.
This ideology is so prevalent that documentaries (the shows that are supposed to be enriching and substantial) and so-called "reality shows" re-hash the premise of the episode and/or the most recent happenings upon resuming after every commercial break. For an hour-long show, that ends up as 5-6 times re-telling what the show is about or catching us up. This burns our attention, burns valuable broadcast time and burns those of us that actually want to pay attention. No wonder we're thought of as dense.