These Microsoft death watches have become almost as cliche as the annual YOTLD penguasms. Yes, Vista sucked just like ME, but so what? In both cases users were able to stay with/fall back to the previous OS version and wait for MS to get it right. I'm betting Win7 will see a large and rapid uptake just like XP did.
Waiting around for the competition to fail is not a winning strategy. Linux had a chance with the Vista debacle and blew it - as evidenced by Linux's share of the OS pie still hovering at around 1%.
Until the Linux community realizes that it is the state of the apps holding back adoption of the OS and decides to do something about it, Linux will never gain a significant share of the pie.
Even with the Vista debacle, Microsoft's total share of the OS pie (win98, winME, winNT, win2000, winXP, and Vista) is still 92.71%. Hell, Linux barely beat out Windows 2000 for market share!