Comment Re:Who has more clout these days? (Score 1) 508
"The number one financial rule in any project is: don't throw good money after bad money. It's gone. Don't make it worse. And from what I understand from the Constellation project, it was just not going to fly - not without pouring enough money and time into it to start from scratch. As a result, it makes sense to scratch it, even if this means short-term pain. "
You show a fundamental misunderstanding of the sunk cost dilemma. While sunk costs should not factor into business decisions from a psychological perspective, they most certainly be plugged into the financial analysis of a decision. When making a decision to proceed or cancel a project, you calculate the additional resources required to achieve the goal by continuing the project, or by starting a different project. But the key is that the goal must be the same. That is NOT the case here.
The goal of Constellation was to get back to the moon, and then to mars. The development of a heavy lifter was a necessary part of that process. The commission pointed out that the project had been underfunded and so, in order to make that goal, $X needed to be added to the Constellation budget. Given that that wasn't going to happen, the commission recommended changing the goal. They never said that we could reach the Moon/Mars cheaper if we scratched Ares and Orion; they said that we should not GO to the Moon/Mars. With the goal changed, the existing work done on Orion is wasted, since we don't need a heavy lifter like that too just play around in orbit.
I agree that we need a heavy lifter. But the cost to start from scratch will exceed the cost to finish Ares. But since the current administration doesn't believe we need a heavy lift capability, it really doesn't matter, now does it?