Comment Re:Well Then (Score 1) 754
That holds true for correct (or not seriously wrong) decisions. In the general case, a Darwin award is a far more probable outcome.
I think what you call "not seriously wrong" is the majority case. When trying to avoid being eaten by a saber-toothed tiger, false positives (fleeing when unnecessary) have few drawbacks. In that situation a Darwin award comes from false negatives (thinking there's no tiger when there is), which over time removes from the gene pool those less likely to jump to conclusions.
In practice we think we see patterns everywhere. If the first two librarians I meet are nice, I'm more likely to think that librarians in general are nice.