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Comment Re: December put options (Score 2) 174

I never understood companies that paid dividends instead of paying off their loans. The only reason to do that is if you expect to go bankrupt and want to drain the company of assets.

Apple has about $100B in debt and pays out a dividend. Are they about to go bankrupt? It makes perfect sense for a company to use debt for financing in this era of historically low interest rates. If they don't have the cash flow to service that debt(see Tesla) then it becomes a problem.

Comment Re:December put options (Score 4, Insightful) 174

"Everyone loves to compare Tesla to GM or Ford as if they are good companies. Don't forget GM actually *did* go bankrupt in 2009 (and Ford nearly did). As for debt, check out GM's and Ford's balance sheets. GM is carrying $99B of debt, and Ford is carrying $158B (per Yahoo Finance)."

Ford and GM have billions in the bank. Their revenues are many times more than Tesla's. They pay a dividend. You can't compare outstanding debt between Tesla and them. The only reason Tesla is compared to Ford or GM at all is because of its ludicrous market cap.

Comment Re:"For the masses"? (Score 1) 276

Dunno about gas prices in your country or how much you drive, but here in America $22k worth of gas will get over 200k miles out of any car with decent gas mileage.

When making the argument on costs of mileage between gasoline and BEVs, people tend to forget to factor in the cost of a new battery for the BEV.

Comment Elon thanks you... (Score 1) 276

For lending Tesla $1,000 at 0% interest and using you to advertise an artificial "reservation count". In turn, helping lift the stock price so Elon could borrow hundreds of millions against it while insiders(like brother Kimbal) could cash out at a crazy valuation. Feel honored, the last time Musk thanked the shareholders was when they bailed him and other insiders out by tying the failing SolarCity albatross to Tesla's neck. The question now is, who's going to bail out Tesla?

Keep this in mind depositors; in a bankruptcy you are an unsecured creditor. And given that the Fremont plant was just put up for collateral, there will be very little(if any) left once the secured creditors are paid.

Comment Re:Too much money (Score 1, Interesting) 272

The one thing that really sets Tesla apart is their heavy use of bundling.

The one thing that sets Tesla apart is that there is no $35K Model 3. It's complete vaporware and can not be bought. People were suckered into giving Tesla an interest free $1,000 loan thinking they'd get a $35K Model 3 with the $7.5K tax credit, all to get as high of a reservation count for Musk to crow about and push the stock price ever higher.

A reservation count that when probed a bit and asked by an analyst about the actual conversion rate when a holder is asked to configure, Musk prefixed his response with a full 15 seconds of silence before saying the question was, "too dry" and decided to spend the next 20 minutes allowing a dozen questions by a YouTube fan boy with a whole 51 shares to his name. It doesn't take Freud to know that the truth was something not supportive of the narrative Musk is trying to push.

I recommend people listen to the archived 1Q18 conference call, including the two previous. If you're not an investor they are very amusing. If you are then they scream run for the exits. It's fun to go back and read Musk's comments about, "productizing the factory", listen to him rant about "stepped exponential production" curves and "air friction" being a potential limiter, and then read his short tweet admitting that he has no idea what he's doing and wasted billions of investor dollars trying to over automate final assembly. It's too bad we're not going to have too many more calls to laugh at.

Comment Re:Father of GPS? (Score 2) 22

Roger Easton is a better candidate see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... As I recall both the Navy and the Air Force had different ideas for a GPS system. Eventually the Navy version was selected and the Air Force was chosen to manage it. The Air Force system as I recall involved a mix of low orbiting satelites and geo-syncronous ones.

I'd mod this up if I had points. Roger Easton is the inventor of GPS and a better pick for this award.

On second thought, maybe the fact that Parkinson is still alive might have some bearing on who won the award.

Comment Re:Father of GPS? (Score 1) 22

Roger Easton is a better candidate see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... As I recall both the Navy and the Air Force had different ideas for a GPS system. Eventually the Navy version was selected and the Air Force was chosen to manage it. The Air Force system as I recall involved a mix of low orbiting satelites and geo-syncronous ones.

I'd mod this up if I had points. Roger Easton is the inventor of GPS and a better pick for this award.

Comment Re:I would have already (Score 1) 29

It's always a tragedy to see your project, the one you raised from zero and cared for, be deeply fucked in the ass by a faceless corporation. Much like when your daughter gets married...

I'm sure billions of dollars eases the butt hurt. But really, why is one surprised when someone wants to buy your project for a fortune and they then want to monetize it?

Comment Tesla 'overbuilt' the Model S/X battery packs (Score 1) 188

The Model S/X battery packs are 'overbuilt' in comparison to cheaper BEVs. When new, the BMS never completely discharges(and may never completely charge) the cells to help preserve them. Don't expect the Model 3 battery packs to last as long since it's a less expensive vehicle. It's also the reason Tesla made sure to state warranty for the battery pack in Model 3 only applies if the battery pack loses over 70% of its capacity with in the warranty period. Of course, who knows what entity may be around to service that warranty in a few years.

Comment It already has back fired (Score 2) 190

Both for their cars and their factory. They're getting sued for their FSD fraud, and they've wasted time and money over auto mating their Fremont factory for the Model 3 line. Now Musk is going to have a 24/7 shift for the Model 3 line. How ever close they were to positive margins on the $60K Model 3 have now become that much more elusive. And the $35K Model 3? Phffft.

Comment Re:Next - janitorial staffing updates (Score 1) 145

Tesla will end up merging with or being bought by a car maker. It's the smart thing to do. Tesla's got the software. They have everything else. The Liliputians didn't rule the day either.

Even if Tesla's market cap falls to $5B(less than $30 a share, assuming no further dilution), nobody will buy it given its $24B in liabilities. Assets will be sold piecemeal after reorg.

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