Comment Re:Typical IT cognitive distortions... (Score 1) 279
From http://www.cbpp.org/cms/index.cfm?fa=view&id=1648 :
Simple rate-of-return comparisons such as those Glassman and many other individual-accounts proponents use fail to take into account the costs of continuing to pay for the benefits of current beneficiaries (and the benefits that current workers have accrued) when computing rates of returns for individual accounts, while including these costs in the rate of return computed for Social Security. These costs remain, however, even if Social Security is eliminated for new workers and replaced entirely by individual accounts. As a result, such comparisons are inherently biased. Since the payments to current beneficiaries (and the benefits that current workers have accrued) are not avoided by setting up individual accounts, the returns on individual accounts should not be artificially inflated by excluding the cost of these payments.
In other words, we have the obligation to pay for people who don't have 401ks yet.
Also, 10% earnings is unrealistically optimistic! I just looked up my Vanguard accounts, and over 10 years, 5% is more typical. And, *then*, you have to subtract off inflation. In the real world (vs. one's dreams) one has to settle for about 3% yield over inflation.
So, sorry, parent post. You're all wrong.