Which is one of the principle ways that people fool themselves about their diet -- e.g. what I'm eating now won't matter because I'll do X later (where "X" is to explicitly exercise, eat less, or some other routine change). [And, aside, if you burned just 350-400 calories
once per week via exercise this would be sufficient to address the caloric excess I described in my hypothetical earlier. That's how little of an excess we're talking about here.]
Anyway, the "I'll do X later" is an effective self-deception because at the heart lies the kernel of truth: It really isn't the "candy bar" per se that you eat at 11 a.m. that gets you, it's the caloric excess overall when you total across a larger interval. So, yes, you really can go ahead and have that candy bar, or that Ben & Jerry's pint, or whatever so long as you compensate appropriately later, either by increasing caloric burn (exercise) or decreased consumption.
If I can come clean on the topic, I'm actually on the side of the "get off your fat butt and make changes to your life" camp. However, one of the things I find fascinating is that the side I am most in agreement with is nevertheless largely ignorant about the biology of obesity and curiously resistant to fact. People who take strong positions against obesity I think have their hearts in the right place, but not much else. For example? For most mammals about 80% of observed variation in weight (by various measures) is heritable -- i.e. genetic, in some form. There is almost no trait easier to breed up or down in animals. And guess what: Humans are no different.
But people don't like hearing this, perhaps because it smacks of biological determinism. Well, it's not -- deterministic, that is. Fat people from fat families manage to lose and retain weight loss all the time. It's just pretty damnably tough, and failures outweigh (heh) successes by a large margin. Think less than 1 in 10 if you want to talk about long term success, and this with outside support, such as a physician or a weight loss group.
Speaking as someone who has studied metabolic disorders for about a decade, the two things that I would really like lean people to understand are these:
1) Most fat people do not (as per the original poster) have an eating problem in the way that is immediately obvious (e.g. consuming multiple hamburgers, orders of fries, shakes at every meal). This is important for lean people to know not just because of the potential ignorant and harmful stereotypes they might buy into and perpetuate otherwise, but because many fat people start out lean at a younger age. And young lean people need to know that personally using "absence of gluttony" as an indicator that they are eating right can get them into serious trouble. It simply does not take much of a caloric imbalance to lead to long term accumulation and, eventually, middle age obesity. Better by far to track your weight and adjust your diet and exercise accordingly
2) Obesity is not, however much we would like it to be, a simple matter of choosing a desired outcome or of spot decision making every now and then. People who are fat do not typically look at themselves in the mirror and go, "oh yeah baby, on me these rolls look good" nor do they look at a pile of food and say, "you know, screw this diet; I'm thinking about 10 lbs of lard sounds really tasty about now." It's about longer term trends, and making the right choices in spite of continuous pressure from one's appetite to make unhelpful decisions. Bear in mind that the neurological processes linking appetite and satiety are very closely coupled with processes involved in addictions (which, aside, is one of the reasons it is so tough to pharmacologically alter appetite without causing additional problems). But, unfortunately, unlike most harmful addictions, an obese individual does not have the option of going "cold turkey." They have to keep eating, every day, and they have to keep dealing with a body that is sending them unhelpful signals. (And also, despite what you might learn on "paid for" TV, appetite is not easily manipulated either through weight loss or diet.
Bottom lines? If you aren't fat, congratulations, but don't let it go to your head. Age is against you and if you don't take your weight seriously you may find that the fat accumulates. If you are fat, you probably have a tough road ahead of you. You probably received a dose of unhelpful genes from one or both parents, and odds are you were raised in an environment that didn't help much either, but don't pretend you have no say in the matter either. From your hand to your mouth to your hips, as it were. Take charge, review your diet and exercise, and talk with a physician if necessary.