I agree completely with your analysis.
The marketing peolple are looking at the rapid rise in tablet sales, rather than the actual numbers sold which is still tiny in comparison to sales of PCs.
However, while the first computer for most people is likely to be a laptop, (and later we may get little servers like the FreedomBox idea), I can see a use for several tablets if the price is low enough. For example, one to use in the kitchen for recipies, one for the lounge to surf the web, and one for the bedroom for reading, or watching a movie.
A more likely killer for the PC is the smartphone. If Google mandated a specific connector and protocol for docking then businesses (and even consumers) would invest in fitting out their offices with docking stations confident that they would be useful for a reasonable period of time. Similarly there would be a rush of docks hitting the market.